Bitcoin On The Brink: Analyst Warns This Key Level Must Hold

Crypto analyst Kevin (Kev Capital TA) informed viewers late on September 25 that Bitcoin’s pullback is monitoring a well-recognized seasonal and structural script—and that the market’s subsequent main impulse hinges on a clearly outlined help vary. “Hold $107k to $98K,” he mentioned, calling the zone the fulcrum for the bull cycle’s subsequent leg. “That’s it. It’s that easy.”

Opening his stream amid a rush of bearish sentiment as BTC value dipped to $108,651, Kevin argued the drawdown mustn’t shock disciplined merchants. He framed the present transfer within the context of months of warning courting again to early August, when he started highlighting weekly bearish divergences throughout Bitcoin, Ethereum and the full altcoin market (Total2), into what he described as four-plus-year resistance zones.

“Everyone thinks these symmetrical triangle patterns after a transfer increased are continuation patterns,” he mentioned, “however in actuality, within the crypto market, very, very not often do these escape to the upside.” He pointed to a development of smaller impulse highs since late 2023 and reiterated that regardless of sharp rallies in choose altcoins, the majors didn’t clear “any main resistance ranges.”

Bitcoin Top In Until Proven Otherwise

The anchor of Kevin’s case is confluence on increased time frames. On Bitcoin’s weekly chart, he outlined rising value highs in opposition to falling momentum—“easy power and momentum indicators,” not indicators by themselves however context that “has been dwindling for a really very long time.”

Total2, he added, registered “a triple high on the weekly” beneath roughly $1.71–$1.74 trillion—“the all-be-all resistance degree”—with weekly RSI and MACD rolling over. Stocks of momentum, in his learn, are resetting exactly the place they need to amid traditionally skinny late-summer liquidity. “Q3 is rarely quarter for crypto,” Kevin mentioned. “August, September are horrible months. They at all times are.”

Against that backdrop, he argued that USDT dominance stays essentially the most dependable inter-market compass. “USDT dominance is the best chart ever. There is not any higher chart,” he mentioned, strolling by way of a macro descending triangle with a flat-bottom help close to 3.9–3.7% and repeated rallies to a falling trendline which have mapped crypto cycle lows and highs for 2 years.

Each method to the flat backside, he famous, has carved a W- or inverse-head-and-shoulders-style base in USDT.D whereas Bitcoin distributed close to native tops; every rejection on the downtrend has coincided with crypto inflections. “You actually don’t want any chart in all of crypto,” he mentioned. “All you want is Bitcoin and USDT dominance and you’d have performed this cycle completely completely.”

From a tactical standpoint, Kevin flagged a three-month BTC liquidity “warmth map” shelf close to $106.8K and the 21-week EMA—the bull-market help band—close to $109.2K as pure magnets, with the decrease weekly Bollinger Band sitting round $101K.

He pressured he doesn’t need to see “Bitcoin lose 106.8K” if the cycle stays intact, although a wick into that space to “swipe the liquidity” can be in line with prior resets. He framed $98K as the road that ought to not break decisively. “There’s a complete lot of help in that vary,” he mentioned. “I’d be fairly shocked if Bitcoin wasn’t in a position to bounce in there someplace.”

All Eyes On This fall Seasonality

Kevin tied structural indicators to an express macro guidelines, arguing that lasting cycle tops and bottoms align with basic catalysts quite than charts alone. He cited 2021’s inflation spike and the onset of the Fed’s climbing cycle as the driving force of that cycle’s 55–60% drawdown, the 2017 CME Bitcoin futures launch as a blow-off high catalyst, and the FTX collapse as the ultimate capitulation in 2022 amid weekly bullish divergence.

“There’s at all times a macro-related motive that correlates with the charts,” he mentioned. By distinction, he sees no such cycle-ending macro set off right this moment: inflation gauges have been “very uneven” however contained; the Fed is extensively anticipated to ease into year-end offered labor softens; and seasonality favors Q4.

He underscored the near-term calendar—core PCE, CPI and labor information within the first half of October—as decisive for threat urge for food. “Sometime in mid-October… we’ll begin to have an thought of the place this market is absolutely going to go,” he mentioned. “If we get to mid-October and Bitcoin’s holding key help… and we get good macroeconomic information, we get one other price reduce… the possibilities favor that Bitcoin will [go higher]—and then you definately’re in This fall.”

Volatility positioning, he added, argues for a pointy directional transfer as soon as the reset completes. On the weekly Bollinger Band Width, Kevin mentioned BTC has printed record-low readings 3 times this cycle—every in Q3—and every episode started with a draw back break of 18–29% earlier than surging to contemporary highs.

“There is an enormous transfer coming for Bitcoin quickly. It has not occurred but,” he mentioned, noting spot volumes have declined since November whereas bands have tightened to historic extremes. A check of the decrease weekly band close to $101K “is feasible,” however not required, in his view; the hot button is that the broader $107K–$98K hall features as a springboard.

Kevin was equally express about invalidation and upside triggers. He labeled $125K “a serious high for now” and mentioned the market wants weekly and month-to-month closes above that degree to substantiate pattern continuation.

On dominance, he highlighted 59.0% and 60.28% as near-term resistance that would gas a BTC-led section if reclaimed; in any other case, he expects management to rotate again to altcoins as soon as Bitcoin bases and USDT dominance prints a decrease high. “Stop wanting on the altcoins” till these inter-market indicators flip, he suggested, emphasizing endurance, threat administration and taking income into resistance.

His backside line combines restraint with opportunism. “Hold $107k to 98K,” he repeated. “Go into October. Get by way of the primary couple of weeks of macroeconomic information… Bitcoin will inevitably discover a low on the again of that information after which ultimately go increased.” But he warned that if macro arrives benign and “Bitcoin continues to be deteriorating,” merchants needs to be able to reassess the cycle thesis. Until then, Kevin’s message stays unapologetically unglamorous: respect the seasonal chop, observe the inter-market tells, and let the higher-time-frame ranges do the speaking. “Being proper is the most effective pat on the again you may get,” he mentioned. “Not simply saying issues that get you a variety of clicks.”

At press time, BTC traded at $109,607.