Bitcoin Options Traders Show Cautious Optimism After $120,000 Breakout
Bitcoin possibility traders are taking modest lengthy positions after the asset’s worth broke above $120,000, signaling that whereas there may be optimism for a rise, it’s not a robust conviction.
Glassnode shared this market sentiment on Friday through a publish on X, full with on-chain information.
A Bet on ‘Uptober’ in BTC Option Market
According to the agency’s post, Bitcoin choices flows are clustering between the $100,000 and $120,000 strike costs, with solely gentle name curiosity noticed at $130,000.
This signifies two key developments within the Bitcoin choices market. First, there may be elevated exercise in name choices inside the $100,000–$120,000 vary, suggesting that merchants are positioning for potential upside past $100,000.
A name possibility offers the holder the suitable to purchase an asset at a particular worth, so elevated curiosity on this vary usually displays bullish sentiment or hedging towards a major worth rally.
However, the comparatively low quantity of name choices at $130,000 reveals that expectations for a transfer far past $120,000 stay restricted, not less than for now. In different phrases, whereas there may be optimism out there, it comes with measured conviction.
The second phenomenon is a rise in very long-term name choices within the $300,000 vary. Out-of-the-Money (OTM) choices are these with a strike worth nicely above the present worth. The $300,000 degree Glassnode talked about is a really high worth vary in comparison with Bitcoin’s present worth of round $120,000.
This rising investor curiosity in these ultra-high-priced call options will be interpreted as “low-cost convexity bets.” Convexity is a construction the place earnings improve dramatically as the worth rises. In different phrases, traders are taking a strategic place to achieve large returns with a small funding within the occasion of an enormous Bitcoin worth surge.
These strikes are usually not a agency directional wager that Bitcoin’s worth will really rise to $300,000. Instead, they present {that a} robust sentiment-driven want to achieve publicity to potential upside is driving the market.
Meanwhile, the Ethereum options market reveals a very completely different sample. Numerous merchants are promoting ETH places set to run out on October 10 and BTC $120,000 calls, getting ready for continued consolidation in Ethereum’s worth.
This technique permits merchants to gather premiums by betting that neither asset will see a major, short-term worth improve. With Bitcoin’s dominance rising within the choices market, a lot of the exercise is shifting away from Ethereum.
A Historical Look at Bitcoin’s October
So, how high can Bitcoin’s worth go? Bitcoin analyst Timothy Peterson addressed this query in a post on X, the place he used historic information to forecast a possible worth vary for BTC in October.
“Bitcoin’s efficiency in October isn’t “arrange” by September, its arrange all through the whole yr,” the analyst stated.
He defined that whereas Bitcoin has traditionally been robust in October, the power of its rally is closely influenced by the momentum of the primary 9 months of the yr. The worth improve from January to September determines the depth of that yr’s “Uptober.”
A chart evaluating the January-to-September returns with October returns since 2015 reveals that Bitcoin has traditionally amplified its previous momentum. When year-to-date returns are high, October sees an even bigger rally; when they’re weak, October stays subdued.
In 2025, the January-to-September return was about 20%, marking the weakest bull market yr on report. The information suggests October might ship a weaker efficiency than in earlier years.
Timothy Peterson stated that from a historic perspective, the anticipated worth vary for this October’s rally is +7% to +31%. This would translate to a worth vary of $122,000 to $149,000.
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