Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Is Entering a Critical Phase as Bearish Momentum Builds
Bitcoin is presently hovering round $102.6k after a unstable begin to November. While the worth motion stays uneven, it’s nonetheless respecting the important thing structural ranges regardless of heavy liquidations and sentiment shifts. The market is in a essential section, sitting close to mid-range help with weak bullish momentum and macro uncertainties looming. Buyers are holding the road for now, however there’s warning within the air.
Technical Analysis
By Shayan
The Daily Chart
On the every day chart, BTC is reacting to the 0.5 Fib retracement at $100.3k after being held on the robust demand zone at $100k. The asset remains to be beneath each the 100-day and 200-day transferring averages, each positioned across the $110k mark, which indicators that momentum is tilted to the draw back within the broader pattern. The latest bounce did not reclaim the important thing provide zone at $106,000, which is now appearing as a resistance.
The RSI additionally sits round 41, nonetheless beneath the mid-level, confirming weak bullish conviction. If the bounce loses steam, the subsequent key degree is the 0.618 Fib close to $94,250, adopted by a deeper retracement towards the $90k zone.
The 4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour chart exhibits that the worth remains to be buying and selling inside a clear descending wedge. Despite the latest bullish bounce from the $100k degree, the rejection from the $106k area signifies sellers are defending that degree aggressively. Until the wedge breaks to the upside with robust quantity, this stays a corrective bounce inside a broader downtrend.
Short-term RSI can also be rebounding from oversold circumstances and now prints round 47, which is impartial however not but exhibiting energy. If Bitcoin can flip $106K convincingly, it opens up a check of the $110K degree. Otherwise, one other sweep of the lows round $100K and even the $98K degree stays possible.
On-Chain Analysis
Short-Term Holder SOPR (30-Day EMA)
Short-Term Holder SOPR is as soon as once more buying and selling beneath 1. This exhibits that latest patrons are promoting at a loss. Historically, when SOPR fails to reclaim 1 throughout a bounce, it indicators a lack of conviction available in the market and a potential for additional correction, as holders are promoting at a loss to forestall greater ones.
Until this metric constantly exceeds 1, which signifies routine profit-taking, short-term panic promoting will possible persist on every bounce. This might overwhelm the market with further provide, particularly if BTC drops decrease, which might result in much more draw back within the coming weeks.
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