Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Must Reclaim These Key Levels to End the Downtrend
Bitcoin’s broader construction continues to mirror a dominant bearish development, but the current worth motion exhibits a short-term restoration try from the main demand zone round $60K–$62K. At this stage, the market is positioned between a higher-timeframe bearish construction and a creating lower-timeframe corrective rebound.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart
On the each day timeframe, the asset remains to be buying and selling inside a well-defined descending channel, with each the higher and decrease boundaries clearly guiding the macro construction. After dropping the $79K degree and breaking decisively under the $75K vary, Bitcoin accelerated towards the main blue demand zone round $60K, the place a robust response occurred.
The current bounce from this area has pushed the worth again towards the mid-$60Ks to high-$60Ks space, however the general construction stays corrective. The worth remains to be buying and selling under the channel’s midline and beneath the 100- and 200-day shifting averages, each of that are sloping downward.
As lengthy as Bitcoin stays under the damaged $75.3K assist and below the $78.9K–$81.4K Fibonacci cluster, the broader bias on the each day timeframe stays bearish. The present restoration seems to be a pullback inside a dominant downtrend fairly than the begin of a confirmed reversal.
BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart
Zooming into the 4-hour timeframe, the corrective nature of the rebound turns into extra evident. After the sharp capitulation wick into the $60K area, the worth fashioned an area base and initiated a rebound towards the $70K space. However, this restoration is unfolding beneath a descending trendline and under the prior breakdown construction.
The $73K–$76K provide zone, which beforehand acted as assist, now stands as a robust resistance space. Until the asset reclaims this area and invalidates the sequence of decrease highs, the short-term construction stays weak to one other leg down.
The current consolidation round the high-$60Ks displays a short lived equilibrium between patrons defending the increased low and sellers defending overhead resistance. A decisive break above the descending trendline may open the door towards the mid-$70Ks, whereas failure to maintain momentum will increase the likelihood of a renewed take a look at of the $60K demand zone.
Onchain Analysis
On-chain information from the Long-Term Holder SOPR (LTH-SOPR) means that sustained draw back stress is starting to have an effect on even Bitcoin’s most resilient cohort, marking a refined however essential shift in market dynamics.
Although the annual common LTH-SOPR stays elevated at 1.87, the metric has just lately dropped under the vital 1.0 threshold, reaching 0.88—a configuration not seen since the late levels of the 2023 bear market. Historically, such breakdowns have a tendency to happen throughout extra superior corrective phases, when even robust fingers start lowering publicity below sustained stress.
That mentioned, broader timeframe information paints a extra nuanced image. The month-to-month common SOPR nonetheless stands at 1.09, implying that, on combination, long-term holders are nonetheless realizing earnings. Full-scale capitulation has sometimes coincided with a lot deeper compressions, with prior bear market bottoms marked by month-to-month SOPR ranges approaching 0.5.
In this context, the present transfer doesn’t but verify structural capitulation. Rather, it indicators early stress amongst long-term individuals—an inflection level that would both stabilize if market situations enhance or evolve into deeper distribution ought to promoting stress intensify.
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