Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Risks Falling Toward $100K if Current Support Breaks
Bitcoin stays confined inside a crucial mid-range construction, oscillating between the 100- and 200-day transferring averages. While the market lately tried to reclaim larger floor, resistance across the 100-day MA has triggered renewed promoting strain.
Technical Analysis
By Shayan
The Daily Chart
On the each day timeframe, BTC has been trapped between the 200-day MA at $109K and the 100-day MA at $114K, each performing as main boundaries of equilibrium. The latest rejection from the 100-day MA, adopted by a rebound off the 200-day MA, underscores the importance of this consolidation zone.
The $114K–$116K area continues to function a dense provide space, coinciding with the midpoint of the latest vary and institutional order move. If Bitcoin closes decisively above $116K, it might sign renewed energy supported by bettering macro liquidity situations after the Fed’s price lower, paving the way in which for a possible rally towards $120K–$122K.
Conversely, shedding the $109K–$110K area might lengthen the corrective section towards the $102K–$104K institutional demand zone, which beforehand acted as a powerful accumulation base.
The 4-Hour Chart
On the 4-hour construction, BTC continues to respect an ascending trendline connecting the upper lows fashioned since mid-October. The latest pullback from the $116K resistance zone has pushed worth again towards this rising help, aligning with the $108K–$109K high-liquidity space.
This area represents a key short-term choice level. A rebound from right here would validate the continued bullish construction and probably provoke one other leg towards $115K–$116K. However, a confirmed breakdown beneath $108K would probably result in a retest of the $102K demand block earlier than any sustainable reversal try.
The total setup nonetheless factors to volatility compression, suggesting that Bitcoin is getting ready for a major breakout transfer within the coming days as international markets digest the FOMC’s dovish stance and bettering geopolitical outlook.
Spot Sentiment Analysis
By Shayan
Spot Average Order Size gives worthwhile perception into market participation dynamics. Historically, expansions in giant spot order sizes (inexperienced clusters) have coincided with accumulation phases led by institutional buyers, whereas smaller retail-dominated orders (pink clusters) usually mark distribution or sideways markets.
Currently, the metric exhibits a notable decline in giant order exercise, reflecting short-term warning regardless of bettering macro situations. This sample mirrors prior consolidation phases earlier than main expansions, suggesting that the market could as soon as once more be within the re-accumulation stage.
If giant order exercise will increase close to the $108K–$110K area, it might affirm renewed institutional accumulation, probably aligning with the liquidity injection results of the latest U.S. price lower and the commerce stabilization between the U.S. and China. Together, these catalysts might lay the groundwork for Bitcoin’s subsequent macro bullish leg.
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