Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Still at Risk of a Sub-$100K Drop Amid a Weak Bounce

Bitcoin is trying a restoration after the current shakeout, buying and selling across the $105K mark. The bounce got here after a steep demand downtrend, but it surely now faces sturdy overhead resistance and weakening on-chain participation. Buyers are stepping in, however the construction suggests the transfer would possibly solely be a aid rally except follow-through quantity steps up.

Technical Analysis

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

The every day chart exhibits value reacting from a main demand zone close to $100K. After a sturdy rejection from the $114K area, BTC printed a decrease low and is now retesting a earlier breakdown degree, was a important provide zone round $106K–$110K. Both the 100-day (yellow) and 200-day (blue) shifting averages have additionally flipped above the present value, turning into dynamic resistance.

Moreover, the RSI stays under 50, indicating weak momentum for now. If patrons can reclaim the $110K order block and maintain above it, the following resistance lies round $114K. Meanwhile, failure to reclaim may push the value again into the $100K zone and even decrease.

The 4-Hour Chart

The 4-Hour construction is unfolding inside a falling wedge, which BTC is trying to interrupt from. The value has climbed again into a short-term resistance zone close to $106K after a clear response from the $100K demand zone.

The RSI has additionally cooled off barely after reaching near-overbought ranges, exhibiting indicators of consolidation. A clear breakout above the wedge and a sturdy shut above $110K would sign potential continuation. But if this zone rejects value once more, one other go to to the $100K degree could be anticipated.

On-Chain Analysis

Active Addresses

On-chain knowledge continues to point out a regarding drop in lively addresses. Despite BTC holding above $100K, the quantity of distinctive every day members on the community has been falling steadily since early 2025. This divergence between value and community exercise means that the present rally is just not broadly supported by elevated utilization or transaction quantity.

This variety of drop in lively addresses is commonly a signal of weakening retail or natural demand. If this development continues, it raises questions in regards to the sustainability of the present value ranges, particularly if no new members are getting into the market.

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