Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC’s Next Move Will Depend on This Key Level
The U.S.–China commerce alignment and the Federal Reserve’s latest price reduce have eased macroeconomic pressures, creating favorable circumstances for threat property. Yet, Bitcoin’s subsequent transfer will rely on whether or not it will possibly verify a breakout above the 100-day MA or maintain the 200-day MA as structural assist.
Until one facet of this equilibrium breaks, the market stays in accumulation and consolidation mode, with volatility compression possible previous the following main impulse transfer.
Technical Analysis
By Shayan
The Daily Chart
On the each day timeframe, Bitcoin has been oscillating between the 100-day MA close to $114K and the 200-day MA round $109K, making a well-defined equilibrium zone. The repeated rebounds from the 200-day MA sign that the $108K–$109K space continues to draw institutional demand, whereas the $114K–$116K vary serves as a powerful distribution zone.
This construction highlights the market’s present state of steadiness between consumers and sellers. The ongoing stabilization part might symbolize an accumulation sample, as proven by the clustered value motion between the 2 key transferring averages.
A confirmed each day shut above the 100-day MA would possible set off a breakout towards $120K–$122K, whereas a breakdown under $108K might expose the $102K–$104K institutional demand zone as soon as once more.
Improving macro sentiment from the FOMC’s dovish coverage pivot and the U.S.–China cooperation framework might assist a bullish continuation if on-chain and quantity metrics verify accumulation.
The 4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour timeframe reinforces the range-bound nature of Bitcoin’s latest conduct. The value has repeatedly reacted from the $108K–$109K assist zone, forming increased lows and trying to reclaim short-term construction. However, the $115K–$116K resistance band stays a ceiling that has capped a number of upward makes an attempt.
This setup outlines a symmetrical consolidation inside an ascending construction, suggesting that volatility is tightening earlier than a possible breakout.
A bullish breakout above $116K might mark a structural shift towards $120K–$122K, whereas a failure to carry the $108K space would verify a deeper retest towards the $102K liquidity pocket.
Until both facet of the vary is breached, the market is predicted to oscillate between these ranges, with low volatility previous the following enlargement.
On-Chain Analysis
By Shayan
Bitcoin Active Addresses affords an essential sign about market participation and community well being. Over latest months, the variety of lively addresses has step by step declined, at the same time as Bitcoin’s value maintained its place close to document highs. Historically, such a decline in on-chain exercise usually displays market fatigue or short-term distribution, notably following prolonged rallies.
However, the present degree of exercise, whereas subdued, stays above the 2024 accumulation baseline, implying that the market isn’t experiencing full capitulation.
Periods of decreased tackle exercise close to key assist ranges have usually preceded large-scale accumulation and pattern reversals, as seen in late 2023 and mid-2024.
If lively tackle progress stabilizes whereas value holds the $108K–$110K assist vary, it will strengthen the case for an accumulation-driven backside formation, aligning with the macro atmosphere of elevated world liquidity and bettering investor sentiment after the Fed’s price reduce.
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