Bitcoin Price Analysis: Drop to $80K Still Possible if BTC Doesn’t Reclaim This Key Level Soon
Bitcoin’s aid bounce has slowed down following an aggressive short-term rally. After leaping previous key ranges final week, patrons now face two main challenges: reclaiming management above resistance and coping with weakening on-chain metrics.
Technical Analysis
By Shayan
The Daily Chart
BTC’s every day chart reveals a transparent bounce from the $80K demand zone, pushing worth again into the $90K–$93K resistance block. The asset additionally stays trapped contained in the descending channel and has now stalled slightly below the higher trendline resistance.
The 100-day and 200-day transferring averages (now each round 108K) nonetheless sit means above the present worth. As lengthy as BTC stays under these MAs, the broader pattern can’t flip bullish. The RSI additionally displays uncertainty, sitting round 45 and failing to break into bullish territory.
This makes the $90K–$95K space probably the most crucial short-term zone. A clear break and every day shut above this area may sign a pattern shift. Until then, this transfer stays a bear market rally inside a bigger downtrend.
The 4-Hour Chart
Zooming into the 4H chart, Bitcoin has fashioned a construction resembling a breakout and retest from a descending trendline that started forming in late October. After a number of rejections at $94K, BTC pierced above this trendline however is now hovering simply across the $91K degree once more.
While the native market construction seems constructive, a bearish divergence is obvious on the RSI, and momentum is weakening. If patrons fail to maintain above the $90K degree within the coming periods, a drop again towards the $80K zone is on the desk. On the flip aspect, a strong push above $94K would put 100k+ targets again in play shortly.
On-Chain Analysis
Active Addresses (100-Day Moving Average)
The on-chain image shouldn’t be serving to the traders a lot proper now. Active Bitcoin addresses have been steadily declining since February 2025, even whereas the value made new all-time highs. That divergence lastly performed out throughout the sharp drop in October and November.
Now, regardless that worth has bounced from 80k to 91k, lively addresses (measured with the 100-day SMA) proceed to fall, not too long ago dipping under the 875k degree. This means that retail and consumer exercise remains to be shrinking, and the rally is probably going being pushed by fewer individuals, presumably whales or institutional merchants.
Sustained rallies sometimes require renewed community exercise and consumer engagement. Until a pattern reversal in tackle exercise happens, this bounce stays suspect from a basic perspective.
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