Bitcoin Price Analysis: Expectations for a drop to $100K Mount as Bulls Struggle to Regain Momentum
Bitcoin is as soon as once more struggling to discover momentum after an aggressive drop a couple of weeks earlier. This present worth habits displays hesitation from each bulls and bears, with merchants carefully watching to see whether or not BTC can maintain its key help ranges or if a deeper correction is coming. While the macro construction nonetheless leans bullish, short-term technicals are beginning to present cracks.
Technical Analysis
By Shayan
The Daily Chart
On the every day timeframe, Bitcoin is hovering round a essential intersection of the ascending trendline of the big channel and the 200-day shifting common close to $108K. The 200-day shifting common is holding as dynamic help, however worth has dropped under the 100-day MA, positioned round $114K, signaling fading bullish momentum.
The RSI stays weak round 40, and the sequence of decrease highs since September’s all-time high confirms the short-term downtrend. If this present help zone breaks decisively, sellers may drag the worth down towards the $100K vital degree. On the opposite hand, to shift sentiment, the worth wants to reclaim $114K with robust follow-through.
The 4-Hour Chart
Zooming into the 4H chart, Bitcoin is caught in a tight vary between $108K and $116K, simply above the rising trendline. This space has been examined a number of occasions, forming a short-term ground. However, every bounce is turning into weaker, suggesting purchaser exhaustion.
RSI on this timeframe is flat, hovering within the mid-40s, exhibiting a lack of directional conviction. If the worth breaks under this trendline, count on a sharp transfer down to retest the important thing help zone round $100K. On the flip aspect, bouncing again above $110K with quantity may shift momentum again towards the $114K–$116K provide zone.
On-Chain Analysis
Short-Term Holder SOPR (30-Day Moving Average)
From an on-chain perspective, the Short-Term Holder SOPR has dropped under 1, indicating that some current consumers are realizing losses. This usually indicators a cautious market, as short-term holders are much less seemingly to promote at a loss until pressured.
The current SOPR peaks additionally present that profitability spikes have been constantly bought into, reflecting weak conviction throughout current upswings. Until SOPR can reclaim and maintain above 1, short-term rallies could proceed to be met with distribution. This reinforces the significance of spot help zones, as they’re now key battlegrounds between affected person consumers and unsure holders.
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