Bitcoin Price Analysis: How Low Can BTC Fall After Losing $66K?
Bitcoin has entered a fragile part. It is testing the decrease boundaries of its latest consolidation after a big retracement from late-2025 highs. Market construction now suggests a possible accumulation zone is forming, with short-term swings contained inside a widening channel.
However, volatility stays elevated, and the approaching periods may be essential for figuring out whether or not BTC can kind a backside above $60k or if additional draw back towards the $50k help cluster or decrease will materialize.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart
On the each day timeframe, BTC is displaying combined alerts. The worth stays under each the 100-day (yellow, ~$80k) and 200-day (orange, ~$90k) shifting averages, and inside a large descending channel. This confirms a bearish medium-term pattern. Yet, the present consolidation is forming simply above a robust help zone round $60k, which coincides with earlier liquidity and demand areas.
The RSI has additionally recovered from deep, oversold ranges close to the underside of the vary, however is as soon as once more on the decline following the latest rejection from the $75k resistance zone. Therefore, with the value accelerating decrease, one other take a look at of the vital $60k demand zone is probably going within the coming days, and BTC’s pattern within the quick to medium-term relies upon closely available on the market’s response at this degree.
BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart
Zooming in on the 4-hour chart, it’s evident that BTC has been forming an ascending channel, which is extra much like a big bearish flag. The asset has additionally been consolidating within the big selection between $60k and $75k for the previous couple of months, being bounded by each the channel boundaries and vital help and resistance ranges.
The latest rejection from the $75k degree is clearer on the 4-hour chart, because the short-term market construction has clearly shifted bearish after a failed breakout above the channel and the horizontal resistance space. This has led to a relatively steep decline in latest days, towards the decrease boundary of the channel, which is on the verge of breaking down in the mean time.
With the RSI additionally sitting low, close to the oversold area, the short-term outlook doesn’t look good for patrons, as a channel breakdown with momentum might result in one other drop towards the $60k zone and make the market anxious as soon as once more.
On-Chain Analysis
On-chain metrics spotlight a key side of the present cycle. The LTH-SOPR/STH-SOPR ratio has fallen to ranges under one, reaching values similar to these noticed through the accumulation part on the finish of the final market cycle in 2023.
For context, the LTH/STH SOPR ratio measures the revenue realization of long-term holders (LTH) relative to short-term holders (STH). So, a ratio under 1 signifies LTHs are promoting at a loss or simply breaking even, whereas STHs are underneath vital strain.
Historically, such depressed readings have coincided with market bottoms and robust accumulation intervals. This means that the present decline within the metric might replicate capitulation from weaker fingers whereas extra affected person buyers accumulate BTC inside the ongoing vary, probably laying the inspiration for the following bullish leg.
Yet, this sign also needs to be accompanied by a constructive worth motion quickly, as even the strongest fingers can not maintain on ceaselessly in an enormous drawdown.
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