Bitcoin Price Analysis: Is BTC Heading to $80K or $96K Next?

Bitcoin continues to wrestle beneath key resistance ranges because the market makes an attempt to stabilize after an prolonged sell-off. The asset stays contained in the broader bullish order-flow zone, however the total pattern continues to be decisively bearish, with reclaims required earlier than any significant reversal can develop.

Technical Analysis

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

Bitcoin has retraced again towards the main bullish order-flow zone after failing to reclaim any high-timeframe construction. The death-cross between the 100-day and 200-day transferring averages has now materialized, confirming a shift towards sustained bearish momentum so long as the worth stays beneath the $100K–$104K area.

The newest wick towards $80K reveals that liquidity beneath the prior macro low has been harvested. Buyers reacted aggressively on the decrease boundary of the inexperienced accumulation zone, however the restoration stays corrective. As lengthy because the market trades beneath the $92K–$96K provide cluster, this bounce needs to be handled as a aid transfer inside a broader downtrend.

If consumers set up stability above the $96K pivot, a mid-range retest of $100K–$104K turns into doable. Failure to reclaim that space leaves the door open for an additional deeper sweep towards the decrease accumulation band between $80K and $83K.

The 4-Hour Chart

Short-term construction stays aligned to the draw back, with the worth respecting the descending trendline and every rally shutting down at decrease provide ranges. The most up-to-date pullback stalled exactly on the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci pocket, highlighting compression in opposition to the trendline.

Until the descending trendline is cleanly reclaimed, upside stays restricted. A confirmed break above $90K–$92K would sign that momentum is rotating upward, opening a path towards the $96K–$98K inefficiency zone. Rejection from the present trendline, nonetheless, would doubtless ship the asset again into the $83K–$86K assist vary, the place the subsequent volatility cluster sits.

On-chain Analysis

By Shayan

Bitcoin’s Binary CDD reveals a notable behavioral shift amongst long-term, smart-money holders. The three upward spikes marked on the chart clearly align with cycle highs, suggesting that skilled holders selected to quietly offload BTC into power whereas retail participation was accelerating. Each spike coincided with an area or macro high, confirming that dormant provide was being reactivated at premium costs.

This sample signifies that profit-taking from long-term holders started properly earlier than the market bought off, a traditional hallmark of distribution phases.

At the identical time, short-term holders have been capitulating aggressively. SOPR metrics present that STHs have spent weeks promoting at losses, producing a deep capitulation band beneath 1.0. This mixture, smart-money distribution on the high and reactive promoting on the backside, sometimes marks the later phases of a correction, not the early ones.

Although this doesn’t indicate a direct reversal, the cleaning of weak fingers and the absorption seen across the decrease accumulation zone recommend that the market is transitioning into a possible accumulation part. Sustained protection of the $80K–$83K realized-demand space would reinforce this state of affairs. A clear breakdown beneath that area, nonetheless, would sign that the ultimate washout has not but accomplished.

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