Bitcoin Price Analysis: What Are BTC’s Next Key Support Levels if $100K Falls?

Bitcoin has just lately fallen beneath the essential $100K assist stage, indicating a notable bearish transfer. If patrons couldn’t maintain this important stage, one other cascade towards the $95K vary will happen.

Technical Analysis

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

On the each day timeframe, BTC stays locked between the $100K–$102K demand block and the $114K resistance cluster, with each the 100-day and 200-day shifting averages now performing as overhead resistance.

The most up-to-date rejection from the 100-day MA round $110K led to a retest of the $101K assist, finishing a full liquidity sweep of the earlier vary low.

What stands out now’s the worth stabilization inside a historic high-volume node, precisely the place earlier macro corrections have discovered their base. The prolonged sequence of equal lows (marked “$$”) means that liquidity beneath $100K has probably been harvested, a situation that, if adopted by consolidation and a better low formation, might affirm the presence of robust palms absorbing provide.

For bulls, the primary affirmation of regained power could be a reclaim of $106K–$108K, whereas for bears, a clear each day shut beneath $99K opens the door to the $93K–$95K macro accumulation zone.

The 4-Hour Chart

Zooming in, the 4-hour construction shows a compressed descending vary, the place each decrease high is forming nearer to assist, a basic sample of momentum exhaustion.

The asset has repeatedly examined the $101K–$102K zone, creating short-term imbalance pockets above $106K and $110K, which can later act as magnet ranges for any corrective rallies. This coiling conduct usually seems close to the top of a corrective section, as leveraged positions are flushed out and volatility contracts.

If the worth manages to reclaim the $106K pivot, a short-term reversal towards $110K might comply with, finishing the mean-reversion transfer. However, sustained rejection from $104K would hold the buildup state of affairs open for an extended interval, extending the sideways vary by mid-November.

On-Chain Analysis

By Shayan

The Realized Price by UTXO Age Bands gives important perception into the present provide–demand stability between market cohorts.

Bitcoin’s worth has declined beneath the 1–3 month and three–6 month holders (purple and blue strains), that means these cohorts are collectively underwater. This shift transforms their realized worth ranges (roughly $107K–$110K) into overhead provide zones, areas the place many of those short-term holders might exit at breakeven as soon as the asset rebounds, creating preliminary resistance throughout restoration phases.

Conversely, the 6–12-month cohort’s realized worth (yellow line, close to $95K–$96K) is rising as a possible demand boundary. This group, typically extra affected person mid-term holders, traditionally gives market assist throughout late-stage corrections, absorbing provide from capitulating short-term traders.

This distribution of realized costs paints a transparent structural image; Bitcoin is trapped between realized provide (short-term loss holders) and realized demand (mid-term robust palms). A sustained protection above the 6–12 month realized worth band would sign that longer-term capital continues to soak up fear-driven promoting, sustaining the bigger bullish cycle intact.

However, a decisive breakdown beneath that stage would point out a deeper capitulation occasion, probably resetting sentiment earlier than any macro reversal.

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