Bitcoin Price Could Still Crash To $99,000 If This Happens, Warns Ostium Labs

Ostium Research’s newest weekly be aware opened with Bitcoin underneath strain after a swift selloff into the brand new week, describing “a mass liquidation occasion” that pushed value as little as $111,761, after rejection close to resistance within the mid-$117,000s.

The staff frames the drawdown as a part of a beforehand flagged “window of weak point… into early October,” whereas stressing the higher-timeframe uptrend stays intact except key weekly ranges fail. The report, printed September 22, 2025, units out each the technical map and the occasion calendar that would govern path-dependency over the subsequent a number of periods.

Bitcoin Crash To $99,000 Looms

On the weekly chart, Ostium notes final week’s consolidation across the August open and a wick into “key resistance… at $117.5k,” adopted by an in depth marginally beneath the open. Early-week value motion then carried value beneath reclaimed assist into the $111k deal with, with the analysts highlighting “over $1.6bn in longs liquidated to this point immediately.”

Two structural inflection zones anchor the bearish threat: “Acceptance beneath $107k on a weekly shut would open up extra draw back into $99k,” whereas on the topside “the weekly high at $115.3k… is no less than revisited a while later within the week.”

On the each day timeframe, the August open at $115.7k is the pivot the market should reclaim to reassert momentum. As the authors put it, “that August open at $115.7k [is] a key degree to flip into assist to renew bullishness.”

The rapid battleground is the prior all-time high at $112k, the place “a reclaim of $112k as assist” would tilt chances towards a better low and power shorts to cowl right into a transfer again by way of $115.7k. Their base case, nevertheless, is for added chop “between $112k-$115k earlier than a second push decrease beneath immediately’s low,” which can decide whether or not the market undercuts the June swing at $107k or marks out a backside sooner.

Tactically, Ostium lays out each lengthy and brief triggers with uncommon readability. On the lengthy facet: “a sweep of immediately’s low early this week after which a reclaim of $112k as assist,” driving momentum “again into the weekly high.” On the brief facet, they float what they name “a very nice brief setup… a pointy v-reversal… again above the weekly high… earlier than… rejecting and breaking again beneath $115.3k,” which might then goal “$112k and decrease.” In different phrases, a squeeze-then-fade path that punishes each late longs and late shorts.

Positioning and derivatives breadth spherical out the near-term blueprint. The be aware shares snapshots of 3-month annualized foundation, Bitcoin versus altcoin open curiosity, and one-week/one-month liquidation maps, underscoring how shortly liquidity pockets can flip into magnets in skinny situations.

This informs their near-term expectation that “the subsequent leg decrease or second liquidation occasion this week [could] be a high chance low,” adopted by a retest of $115.3k that may act because the tape’s verdict on whether or not one other down-leg or a bear-trap reversal is in play into quarter-end.

The home view stays probabilistic moderately than doctrinaire. If $107k fails on a weekly shut, the weak point window might prolong into “$99k”; if it holds—and particularly if the market can “flip $115.7k into assist”—the higher-low narrative stays alive. In the authors’ phrases, for Ethereum “nothing about this greater timeframe construction or momentum is at present giga-bearish,” and, by analogy, Bitcoin’s construction is greatest judged by the response round $111.7k–$112k this week.

Whether immediately’s flush proves to be prelude to capitulation or the entice earlier than new highs, Ostium’s backside line is obvious: “we transfer a lot greater from early October” except these weekly thresholds are accepted decrease.

At press time, BTC traded at $113,002.