Bitcoin Price Got Rejected At The 200-MA, Why Breaking $76,000 Could Be A Problem
Bitcoin’s newest value motion has run into a technical wall, and crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader believes the rejection may change into extra severe if one close by assist stage fails. Particularly, technical evaluation reveals that the worth motion seems uncomfortably close to a crash under $76,000.
Bitcoin’s 200-Day Moving Average Has Become The First Major Rejection Zone
Bitcoin reached $82,400 on May 6 earlier than stalling on the 200-day shifting common, pulling again to as little as $74,000 throughout the newest weekend. Merlijn’s chart analysis compares this present 2026 setup on the every day candlestick timeframe with Bitcoin’s 2022 construction.
Looking on the 2022 instance, Bitcoin pushed into the 200-day shifting common round $48,000 in early April, failed to carry that stage, after which continued decrease till the worth fell to as little as $28,000 in May. That transfer turned out to be a decline of about 40% from the rejection space.
The present chart reveals an identical technical thought, though the worth ranges are totally different. Bitcoin not too long ago tried to get better into $80,000 in the midst of May, however the purple 200-day shifting common acted as a ceiling. The rejection from that zone has placed the focus on the short-term assist round $76,000, which Merlijn recognized as the extent to observe. If $76,000 breaks, then Bitcoin may play out a value motion much like the 2022 one.
Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @MerlijnTrader On X
Losing $76,000 Could Speed Up Drop Below $67,000
According to analysts at K33 Research, Bitcoin’s rejection on the 200-day shifting common mirrors patterns seen throughout earlier market cycles in 2014, 2018, and 2022.The most necessary stage for Bitcoin bulls to carry now’s $76,000. A transfer beneath $76,000 would weaken the sample as a result of it could erase the higher-low construction that shaped after Bitcoin’s push from the mid-$70,000 vary in May. “Lose it, the transfer accelerates,” the analyst mentioned.
If $76,000 breaks, Merlijn has a transparent first draw back goal: the $67,000 CME hole. CME gaps type as a result of Bitcoin is all the time buying and selling constantly on crypto exchanges even on weekends, however CME futures pause throughout weekends and market closures. A hole can seem on the chart when futures reopen at a special value from the place they closed, and more often than not, this hole all the time acts as a value magnet.
Right now, Bitcoin is buying and selling at $77,233, which suggests it has not confirmed the bearish follow-through Merlijn is warning about. However, so long as Bitcoin retains buying and selling beneath the 200-day shifting common and retains urgent in opposition to $76,000, then there’s a chance that it’ll fall to the $67,000 CME hole. On the opposite hand, a reclaim of the $79,000 to $80,000 vary this week would cut back the quick threat of a crash to $67,000.
