Bitcoin Price May Slide To $58,000, Galaxy Digital Warns

Galaxy Digital is warning that the Bitcoin selloff might not be completed, arguing that on-chain information, weakening technical ranges, and a skinny catalyst calendar go away BTC weak to a deeper retracement towards the high-$50,000s over the approaching weeks or months.

In a client note dated Feb. 1, 2026, Galaxy researcher Alex Thorn framed final week’s drawdown as greater than a quick shakeout. Bitcoin fell 15% from Monday, Jan. 28 by means of Saturday, Jan. 31, with the transfer accelerating into the weekend. Saturday alone noticed a ten% slide that, in accordance with the notice, triggered one of many largest liquidation occasions on report, wiping out greater than $2 billion in lengthy positions throughout futures venues.

Why The Next Weeks, Months Look Bearish For Bitcoin

The selloff pushed BTC as little as $75,644 on Coinbase and briefly drove the spot worth beneath a number of extensively watched investor value bases. Thorn famous that BTC dipped as a lot as 10% beneath the average cost basis of US spot ETFs, estimated round $84,000 primarily based on the costs at which creations occurred, earlier than recovering some floor. At one level, BTC additionally pierced Strategy’s average cost basis of $76,037, and almost revisited the 1-year low of $74,420 set throughout the April 2025 “Tariff Tantrum.”

At the time of writing, Thorn pegged Bitcoin at roughly 38% beneath its Oct. 6, 2025 all-time high of $126,296. Historically, he argued, that magnitude issues: excluding 2017, the asset has not usually stopped at a 40% drawdown from peak with out extending towards 50% inside three months. A 50% decline from the October high would indicate a transfer towards roughly $63,000.

Thorn’s central roadmap was outlined by two long-term reference factors which have repeatedly acted as “gravity” in prior cycles after key helps failed. Bitcoin misplaced its 50-week transferring common in November 2025, and the notice argued that, in earlier bull markets, dropping that degree usually preceded a deeper imply reversion to the 200-week transferring common which at present sits across the $58,000 worth mark.

Meanwhile, realized worth, an on-chain proxy for the common value foundation of cash primarily based on their final motion, is round $56,000. Both metrics rise over time if BTC trades above them.

The notice pointed to ETF positioning as an extra stress take a look at. US spot Bitcoin ETFs, launched in January 2024, had amassed $54 billion in internet inflows as of the week ending Jan. 30, 2026, down from a peak of $62.2 billion in early October 2025. Thorn highlighted that the prior two weeks have been the second- and third-worst for ETF flows, with mixed outflows of $2.8 billion, whilst ETF holders largely remained in place by means of the broader drawdown.

On-chain distribution information additionally steered to Galaxy that the $82,000–$70,000 area may very well be calmly defended, growing the chances of a downward probe. Thorn described a noticeable possession “hole” in that band, and argued that worth usually seeks out zones the place demand has beforehand been established, significantly after sharp deleveraging occasions.

Thorn additionally flagged a deteriorating narrative backdrop. “Catalysts stay arduous to seek out. Narratives are working in opposition to Bitcoin. There’s little proof of serious accumulation,” he wrote, including that BTC’s current failure to track gold and silver amid macro uncertainty has undercut the “debasement hedge” framing.

Even so, the notice stopped wanting calling a clear break into the $50,000s inevitable. Thorn emphasised that long-term holder profit-taking, described as exceptionally heavy in 2024 and 2025, has begun to abate, a situation that has traditionally coincided with late-stage selloffs.

For merchants, Galaxy’s framing units up a tactical query: whether or not the present ETF value foundation space close to $84,000 can maintain as a near-term anchor, or whether or not the availability hole beneath turns right into a vacuum that pulls BTC towards the $70,000 deal with. If that offers method, the extra consequential take a look at is whether or not realized worth and the 200-week transferring common within the high $50,000s once more perform because the type of cycle-defined ground Galaxy believes long-term traders have traditionally handled as an entry zone.

At press time, Bitcoin traded at $78,301.