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Bitcoin Price Prediction: Japan’s Next Rate Hike Could Flip the Global Risk Trade – Is Bitcoin the Big Winner?

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Japan’s central financial institution is scheduled to carry its Monetary Policy Meeting (MPM) on December 18–19, 2025, with markets anticipating a possible rate hike to 0.75% from 0.5%, a transfer that would flip the world threat commerce and considerably affect the Bitcoin price prediction outlook.

Japan’s Rate Hike Is Risky For Bitcoin

Analysts view the potential charge hike as ending the “Carry Trade” period.

Higher charges make yen property extra interesting, prompting traders to tug capital from abroad holdings like crypto.

This strengthens the yen, raises borrowing prices worldwide, and dampens Bitcoin hypothesis, traditionally inflicting 20-30% value drops.

Macro investor Afsheen Jafry explained that whereas markets deal with Powell and the Fed, the BOJ truly controls one thing extra elementary: world liquidity flows.

“When the BOJ tightens, capital floods again to Japan. When they ease, it floods out, and crypto is all the time first in line to catch that overflow,” she famous.

She cited July 2024 when the BOJ’s charge enhance triggered an enormous selloff, crushing Bitcoin from $73,000 to $53,000.

“That wasn’t random. That was carry commerce unwinding on an enormous scale.”

The BOJ additionally holds roughly ¥83 trillion ($534 billion) in ETFs accrued since 2010, representing 7-8% of Japan’s ETF market.

Reports indicate officers plan gradual gross sales of those ETFs beginning in January 2026.

These gross sales would reverse years of liquidity injections, doubtlessly pressuring Japanese shares and decreasing world threat urge for food.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Defending $80K Support Critical for Price Recovery

Bitcoin is holding agency above the $80,000 stage after November’s sharp drop, exhibiting consumers are defending this key help that has held since late 2024.

The latest push towards the higher $80,000s hints at early indicators of restoration, however BTC stays trapped beneath the important $100,000 to $109,000 resistance zone.

Breaking via this vary may flip momentum and ensure a real reversal. Otherwise, this bounce might fade.

Bitcoin Price Prediction - Bitcoin Price Chart
Source: TradingView

RSI has climbed from oversold ranges into the mid-40s, signaling that promoting stress is cooling, although upside momentum is just not but convincing.

If Bitcoin retains holding $80,000, a retest of $100,000 is probably going, with $109,000 as the subsequent goal. On the flip aspect, a breakdown may ship BTC sliding towards the $62,000 to $71,000 demand zone.

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Bitcoin Price Prediction - Maxidoge banner

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