Bitcoin Rallies On Venezuela Oil Story: Here’s What’s Wrong
Bitcoin’s roughly 5% soar on Jan. 5 landed on a clear, TV-friendly clarification: a shock political flip in Venezuela would “unlock” oil provide, push power costs down, cool inflation, carry fee cuts ahead, and elevate BTC. Bitwise Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen says there’s a significant flaw with that.
The catalyst for the narrative was Venezuela’s weekend drama, culminating in Nicolás Maduro’s capture and switch into US custody, an episode that instantly spilled into geopolitics, commodities chatter, and macro cross-asset takes.
Rasmussen, posting in a thread on X, summarized the “Wall Street concept” as follows: “Venezuela oil reserves unlocked >> decrease oil costs >> decrease inflation >> rates of interest >> bitcoin rallies. A thread on why that’s unsuitable.”
Why This Bitcoin Theory Is Wrong
Rasmussen’s central level is mechanical: if the rally is being pushed by a sudden repricing of financial coverage expectations, it ought to present up within the chances merchants are assigning to fee cuts. In his learn, it didn’t.
He cited a slight dip within the implied odds of a 25 basis-point minimize in January 2026 instantly after the Venezuela headlines. “Probability of a 25bps Rate Cut in Jan’26: Prior to Maduro’s Capture: 16.6%. After Maduro’s Capture: 16.1%,” Rasmussen wrote, including that “the likelihood of a 25bps fee minimize this month truly fell.”
Even additional out, he argued, the change was marginal to nonexistent. “Probability of a 25bps Rate Cut in Dec’26: Prior to Maduro’s Capture: 19.1%. After Maduro’s Capture: 19.2%,” he wrote, framing it as “barely moved.”
That’s the mismatch Rasmussen desires buyers to note: a tidy causal story was making the rounds, however the pricing within the instrument closest to that story, fee expectations, was successfully unchanged.
If not a Venezuela-to-Fed chain response, what explains the day’s BTC energy? Rasmussen pointed to a cluster of themes which have been constructing while not having a weekend headline to justify them.
First is institutional demand. Rasmussen argued that the post-2024 spot bitcoin ETF channel continues to widen, with extra main platforms starting to allocate. He cited an instance of “+$500m into bitcoin ETFs on Jan. 2nd,” and named Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Merrill Lynch as a part of the distribution wave which have opened their door with the start of the 12 months.
Second is the regulatory backdrop. Rasmussen described a “pro-crypto regulatory shift” following the 2024 election, saying crypto markets are starting to “really feel the advantages” as wealth managers, endowments, pensions, and sovereigns get extra comfy adopting bitcoin.
Third is a broader risk-on tone tied to AI. In Rasmussen’s framing, “fears of an AI-bubble are settling,” and buyers have been “piling into risk-on belongings, like tech shares and bitcoin.”
Finally, he returned to coverage, simply not by way of Venezuela. “Did Maduro’s seize materially change short-term fee minimize expectations? No. Does that imply QE is out of the image. Also no,” Rasmussen wrote, earlier than including: “QE is simply starting. The market was—and nonetheless is—anticipating 50bps (or extra) fee cuts in 2026.”
Overall, Rasmussen didn’t argue Venezuela is irrelevant. His conclusion was narrower: “Yes. Somewhat,” he wrote when requested whether or not the weekend’s occasions matter for bitcoin, earlier than answering the larger query whether or not it’s the principle purpose for the +5% transfer with a flat “No. Zoom Out.”
At press time, BTC traded at $93,750.
