Bitcoin Realized Profit/Loss Reveals Underlying Structural Shift — What’s Happening?

Based on information from the weekly worth chart, Bitcoin is witnessing a major lack of over 6% following latest widespread market liquidations. Notably, the premier cryptocurrency has taken on a consolidatory stance prior to now day, as if to lend credence to rising hopes of some worth restoration. However, a latest on-chain evaluation factors out that Bitcoin’s outward present of resilience may merely be theatrical and that the flagship cryptocurrency may very well be dealing with a darkish future forward.

Bitcoin Enters 30-Day Cumulative Realized Loss Phase Since October 2023

In a latest Quicktake submit on CryptoQuant, crypto training and analysis group XWIN Research Japan dissects the current on-chain state of affairs of Bitcoin, with the middle of attraction being the Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss metric, which reveals the main cryptocurrency has recorded a web realized loss on a 30-day foundation for the primary time since October 2023. 

However, the losses seen in 2023 have been short-lived and quickly retraced, in contrast to the present decline, which is broader and extra persistent, suggesting a potential structural shift in market dynamics. At this second, it seems that traders are less-interested in “shopping for the dip,” nor are they trying to “HODL” by way of the Bitcoin worth motion, and are extra keen to just accept losses.

For this purpose, the market might be extra plausibly described as being in a state of warning. It is, nevertheless, price mentioning that the current part doesn’t essentially precede a market crash. If something, it displays that Bitcoin could also be coming into a extra unstable part, impartial of speculative frenzies.

Realized Profits Signal Late-Stage Of Bull Cycle 

XWIN Research additional reinforces the hypotheses by referencing the development in realized earnings. According to the market specialists, Realized Profits peaked in March 2024 at roughly 1.2 million BTC, and diminished barely to 1.1 million in December 2024. 

As of July, 2025, realized earnings had sharply dropped to 517,000 BTC, reflecting an growing exit of profit-taking exercise throughout the market. But this pales compared to the decrease 331,000 BTC recorded in October. The analytics group defined that this contraction occurred regardless of an increase in costs, thus suggesting an absence of deep upside momentum.

The group additional highlights that it is a telltale signal of a late-stage bull market, one which was seen in 2021-2022. In this era, realized earnings slowly dropped earlier than the Bitcoin worth flipped bearish. More shockingly, the annual timeframe tells the same story, with annual web realized earnings contracting from 4.4 million BTC to 2.5 million BTC, simply inside October 2025 and early 2026. This can also be much like the part that preceded the bear market of 2022.

In essence, Bitcoin is in a transitioning part, from a mature bull part to a unstable surroundings. As of this writing, the Bitcoin worth stands at $89,462. 

Featured picture from Pexels, chart from Tradingview