Bitcoin Signals Bear Market: One Thing Could Flip It, Says CryptoQuant CEO
Bitcoin could also be sliding into a brand new bear part until recent macro liquidity – significantly by means of spot ETFs – returns to the market, based on CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju.
Bitcoin Bear Market Incoming?
Sharing a composite on-chain dashboard overlaid on the BTC value, Ju wrote on X: “Most Bitcoin on-chain indicators are bearish. Without macro liquidity, we enter a bear cycle.” The chart stacks ten CryptoQuant metrics behind the worth in a red-to-green heatmap from 2021 to 2025, highlighting how regime shifts in prior cycles coincided with clusters of bearish readings.
The indicators within the panel embrace the MVRV Z-score, CryptoQuant P&L Index, the Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator, Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse, Network Activity Index, Stablecoin Liquidity, Bitcoin Demand Growth, Trader On-chain Profit Margin, Trader Realized Price and a Technical Signal metric. When the bulk are bullish, the backdrop turns mild inexperienced; once they flip bearish, it shifts to pink. In the newest part of the chart, as BTC has pulled again from its highs, pink as soon as once more dominates – the visible foundation for Ju’s warning.
For the subsequent main transfer, Ju argues that on-chain information is now subordinate to macro situations and ETF flows. Quoting his personal publish, he wrote: “It is straightforward. If you assume macro will get higher subsequent yr, you purchase. Otherwise, you promote. I’m not a macro professional, so discover macro bros. New ETF inflows are the important thing.”
That line pinpoints what he believes can “save” Bitcoin from a deeper drawdown: renewed demand from spot ETFs as a conduit for institutional capital. In earlier phases of the cycle, rising ETF inflows coincided with sturdy value appreciation; extra not too long ago, slowing or destructive flows have mirrored the lack of upward momentum.
Ju frames the present surroundings as one which calls for versatile state of affairs administration slightly than inflexible forecasts. “At this stage, it’s extra about being reactive than predictive. Set your situations and commerce accordingly,” he advised followers. The composite chart is designed for precisely that goal, exhibiting how previous bull tops and bear markets aligned with persistent stretches of pink throughout revenue, valuation and liquidity metrics.
Despite the bearish tilt, Ju doesn’t foresee a repeat of the 2022 collapse, when Bitcoin fell roughly 65% from peak to trough. He cites the behaviour of Michael Saylor led Strategy as a stabilizing issue. “If Strategy holds its 650K BTC this cycle (or sells solely somewhat), we’d not see one other -65% drawdown like in 2022,” he wrote. In his view, that offer remaining largely off the market reduces the chance of a violent deleveraging occasion.
Ju characterizes the present pullback as substantial however not excessive in historic context. “We are about -25% from ATH now, and even when a bear cycle comes, the draw back would probably be smaller and look extra like a broad sideways vary,” he argued, suggesting that extended consolidation is extra probably than a single dramatic crash.
His message to long-term traders is explicitly calming. “Long-term holders ought to keep away from panic promoting,” he suggested. While cyclical on-chain indicators flash pink, he insists the structural backdrop has improved: “Bitcoin has extra liquidity channels now, so the long-term outlook is clearly sturdy, imo.” Those channels embrace ETFs and a deeper institutional market construction than in prior cycles.
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $92,494.