Bitcoin supply guide: When holders sell, miners strain, and ETFs add pressure
Bitcoin supply information: cost-basis bands, miner stress, and ETF move alerts
Bitcoin is at present buying and selling outdoors a $93,000–$110,000 cost-basis band that Glassnode frames as an “overhead supply” zone.
That setup places the following quarter’s supply story on miner money move and holder habits moderately than the issuance schedule. According to Glassnode’s Week On-chain W02 2026, the Short-Term Holder (STH) price foundation sits close to $98,300.
That stage typically turns into a reference level for whether or not current consumers add publicity or distribute into rebounds.
At the identical time, mining markets are pricing a lean profitability regime.
The Hashrate Index roundup dated Jan. 26, 2026 put the six-month hashprice ahead curve at about $33.25 per PH/s per day (about 0.00041 BTC), under the zone it has described as breakeven for a lot of miners ($39.50) relying on working prices and machine sorts.
Related CryptoSlate context: miner-stress narratives typically hinge on the identical profitability/problem loop described in Bitcoin’s hashrate continues to fall as the price spike doesn’t convince miners to turn machines back on.
This quarter’s extra variable is whether or not ETF flows act as a sink for tradable supply or a launch valve.
SoSoValue information recorded $681 million in web outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs within the first full buying and selling week of 2026, in a risk-off setup tied to price expectations and macro headlines. Last week, web flows reached -$1.3 billion, the worst week since May 2025.
For extra CryptoSlate reporting context on that very same early-2026 move regime, see Bitcoin breaking $126,000 has clear 3 year pathway but a brutal $1.3 billion exodus changes everything today.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin’s issuance schedule is mounted by the protocol, with a 21 million cap and reward halvings each 210,000 blocks. Near-term “supply shocks” have a tendency to return from tradable float and incentives, based on Blockchain.com’s supply chart.
- Glassnode locations present overhead supply between $93,000 and $110,000, with the STH price foundation round $98,300. That vary turns into a demand-absorption take a look at for the quarter, based on Glassnode W02 2026.
- Hashrate and problem already adjusted to emphasize, with the 7-day SMA hashrate shifting from 1,003 EH/s to 966 EH/s and problem falling 3.28% to 141.67T on Jan. 22, based on Hashrate Index (Jan. 26, 2026). For background, see Bitcoin hashrate hits new high of 943 EH/s as difficulty adjusted down 0.45%.
- Mining forwards implying roughly $39.50/PH/s/day over six months retains consideration on miner treasury administration and shutdown danger. “Breakeven” is determined by opex and fleet effectivity, based on Hashrate Index.
- ETF move route stays a swing issue after such a horrible month to begin the yr, with $1 billion in web outflows.
Who that is for
- Long-term allocators monitoring cohort supply, cost-basis bands, and maturation dynamics
- Swing merchants centered on the STH price foundation and overhead supply reactions
- Institutional desks monitoring ETF move regimes and miner-driven liquidity
- Mining and infra operators managing hashprice publicity and problem timing
What to look at this quarter
- Price habits across the STH price foundation close to $98,300 and regaining its place contained in the $93,000–$110,000 overhead band (Glassnode W02 2026)
- Six-month hashprice expectations recovering to close $39.50/PH/s/day and spot hashprice divergence from the curve (Hashrate Index)
- Difficulty adjustment cadence following the Jan. 22, 3.28% drop to 141.67T (Hashrate Index).
- Venue move combine, together with Glassnode’s be aware that Binance and combination trade flows shifted into buy-dominant regimes whereas Coinbase promote pressure eased (Glassnode W02 2026)
- Weekly spot Bitcoin ETF web flows after $1.3 billion outflows final week.
Issuance fundamentals + halving (what’s mounted vs what’s variable)
Bitcoin’s whole supply path is deterministic on the protocol layer, with a most of 21 million BTC and block-subsidy halvings each 210,000 blocks.
That constraint issues for long-horizon valuation and for quarter-to-quarter issuance math. New supply enters on a schedule the market can mannequin.
The extra instant query for the following quarter is market-available supply.
That means the stock that may attain spot venues by means of miner gross sales, holder distribution, and ETF creations or redemptions. This is the place “supply shocks” typically kind, for the reason that issuance curve is thought whereas liquidity choices are conditional.
Most quarter-scale volatility maps to the second.
Miner economics & promote pressure (why hashprice is the reside supply lever)
Mining acts as an elastic supply lever as a result of miner BTC gross sales are one of many few structural sources of recurring distribution.
That elasticity was seen in late January. Hashrate Index reported the 7-day SMA hashrate fell from 1,003 EH/s to 966 EH/s, and community problem adjusted down 3.28% to 141.67T on Jan. 22.
Forward markets additionally indicate constrained miner margins.
The identical roundup reported the hashprice ahead curve pricing a median of about $33.25 per PH/s per day over the following six months. Hashrate Index has individually described $39–$40/PH/s/day as close to breakeven for a lot of miners, whereas stressing it varies by working prices and machine mannequin.
A forward-looking body for this quarter makes use of three conditional paths grounded in these information factors:
- Near-breakeven grind: If hashprice recovers close to the forward-implied ~$33.25/PH/s/day, higher-cost fleets face tighter treasury circumstances.
- That can translate into periodic hashrate dips and episodic spot promoting to fund operations, based on Hashrate Index.
- Difficulty-driven aid: If hashrate weakens additional, subsequent problem reductions can raise income per unit hash even with flat BTC worth.
- That reduces pressured promoting on the margin, because the Jan. 22 adjustment illustrates.
- Macro-driven compression: If a broader risk-off transfer pressures BTC worth whereas hashprice sits close to breakeven, shutdowns can speed up.
- That feeds the identical difficulty-relief loop with unsure timing.
Miner stability sheet coverage can shift realized promote pressure inside 1 / 4.
Related CryptoSlate miner-stress framing: Bitcoin faces potential miner capitulation as hash rate continues to drop.
Long-term vs short-term holders (the place overhead supply truly comes from)
Glassnode’s present map frames the supply overhang as a cost-basis band moderately than a single worth.
In Week On-chain W02 2026, it described the market as testing supply spanning roughly $93,000–$110,000, whereas inserting the STH price foundation at $98,300.
For this quarter, that framing issues as a result of it defines the place prior consumers might use rallies to exit.
It additionally defines the place new demand should soak up stock to keep away from renewed distribution.
Holder habits has softened versus late 2025 with out flipping into accumulation.
Glassnode mentioned Long-Term Holder (LTH) supply continues to development decrease, whereas the speed of decline slowed materially in contrast with the distribution seen all through Q3 and This fall 2025. It additionally put LTH web realized revenue close to 12.8k BTC per week, down from cycle peaks above 100k BTC per week.
The regime-change situation Glassnode identifies for a extra sturdy rally is a shift the place maturation supply outpaces LTH spending.
That would push LTH supply increased. In quarter phrases, the overhead band can clear provided that promoting pressure decelerates sooner than new and returning demand.
One technical caveat issues when readers examine dashboards.
Glassnode’s supply endpoints don’t deal with 155 days as a tough cutoff. Its cohorts use a logistic weighting centered at 155 days with a 10-day transition width.
Common myths (supply narratives that fail underneath measurement)
- Myth: The halving creates instant shortage in tradable supply. Issuance adjustments are block-based and recognized, whereas quarter-scale supply pressure is usually pushed by miner profitability and holder distribution choices.
- Myth: 155 days is a strict boundary for LTH classification. Glassnode’s supply cohorts use a logistic weighting centered at 155 days with a 10-day transition width, which impacts interpretation close to inflection factors.
- Myth: Miner capitulation is a single occasion. The hashrate and problem system can ratchet down and then normalize profitability per unit hash, as seen within the Jan. 22 problem discount following a hashrate decline.
Metrics dashboard (the minimal set to watch for the following 6 months)
| Area | Metric | Current reference from sources | Why it issues this quarter | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Protocol | Supply cap and halving cadence | 21M max supply, halving each 210,000 blocks | Anchors issuance math, shifts focus to tradable float | Blockchain.com |
| Mining | Hashrate (7-day SMA) | 1,003 EH/s to 966 EH/s (late Jan. 2026) | Shutdown danger and miner income stress proxy | Hashrate Index (Jan. 26, 2026) |
| Mining | Difficulty changes | -3.28% to 141.67T on Jan. 22, 2026 | Mechanical aid valve for miner margins | Hashrate Index (Jan. 26, 2026) |
| Mining | Hashprice ahead curve (6 months) | ~$33.25/PH/s/day | Frames treasury pressure and forced-sell likelihood | Hashrate Index (Feb. 3, 2026) |
| Holders | Overhead supply band | ~$93k to $110k | Defines the place prior price foundation can convert rallies into promote move | Glassnode W02 2026 |
| Holders | STH price foundation | ~$98.3k | Confidence threshold for current consumers close to overhead supply | Glassnode W02 2026 |
| Holders | LTH distribution pacing | ~12.8k BTC per week web realized revenue, slower than prior peaks | Tracks whether or not distribution is fading or resuming into power | Glassnode W02 2026 |
| Liquidity | Venue move dominance | Binance and combination flows buy-dominant, Coinbase promote pressure eased | Absorption capability at overhead supply is determined by routing | Glassnode W02 2026 |
| ETFs | Weekly web flows | -$1B in first month of 2026 | Net outflows can return stock to the market by way of redemptions | SoSoValue by way of reporting |
Red flags & invalidation
- Any declare that trade balances are “down X% not too long ago” with no current-dated dataset must be handled as invalid.
- “Breakeven hashprice” ought to stay conditional on opex and {hardware}, since Hashrate Index frames $39–$40/PH/s/day as close to breakeven for a lot of miners relying on these inputs.
Action guidelines, monitoring routine
- Weekly: Record ETF web move signal and magnitude after the -$681 million outflow week, utilizing SoSoValue-linked reporting for comparability.
- Each problem epoch: Track whether or not problem continues to fall after Jan. 22’s 3.28% discount, and examine with hashrate route for miner stress context.
- Daily/rolling: Compare spot hashprice to the six-month ahead common close to $33.25/PH/s/day to gauge whether or not miners face tightening or aid.
- Regime examine: Track whether or not LTH supply stays web declining or turns up underneath Glassnode’s “maturation exceeds spending” situation.
- Price context: Observe market reactions round $98,300 and inside $93,000–$110,000, since these ranges map to STH and overhead supply price foundation within the present Glassnode framing.
Those inputs must be tied again to the mounted Bitcoin issuance schedule.
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