Bitcoin to $16 Trillion? ARK Says BTC Could Eat 70% of the Entire Crypto Market

ARK Invest estimated in its “Big Ideas 2026” report that the marketplace for good contract networks and pure-play digital currencies may attain $28 trillion in whole market worth by 2030. The agency stated these digital property, that are used as shops of worth, mediums of alternate, and models of account on public blockchains, may develop at an annual progress price of about 61% by means of the finish of the decade.

ARK projected that Bitcoin may account for roughly 70% of the general market, whereas the the rest is anticipated to be dominated by good contract networks equivalent to Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL).

Bitcoin Leads ARK’s 2030 Outlook

Under ARK’s forecast, BTC’s market capitalization may rise at a compound annual progress price (CAGR) of round 63% over the subsequent few years, growing from practically $2 trillion to about $16 trillion by 2030.

The funding administration agency estimated that the market capitalization of good contract platforms may develop at a 54% annual price to roughly $6 trillion by 2030, which is anticipated to be supported by annualized income of about $192 billion at a mean take price of 0.75%. ARK stated two to three Layer 1 platforms may take most of that market.

Meanwhile, the US Bitcoin ETFs and public corporations held 12% of the whole bitcoin provide in 2025, up from 8.7% beforehand. The agency discovered that the ETF balances rose 19.7% throughout the 12 months, growing from about 1.12 million BTC to virtually 1.3 million BTC.

Public firm BTC holdings additionally expanded, after climbing 73% from round 598,000 BTC to roughly 1.09 million BTC.

ARK additionally noticed that BTC’s risk-adjusted returns surpassed these of most different large-cap cryptocurrencies and indexes for many of 2025. It stated bitcoin’s common yearly Sharpe Ratio exceeded that of ETH and SOL, and the common of the different 9 parts in the CoinDesk 10 Index since the newest cycle low in November 2022, the begin of 2024, and the starting of 2025.

It added that Bitcoin has change into much less unstable because it grows right into a safe-haven function.

Only a Few Coins Will Survive?

Additionally, Layer 1 networks had been additionally discovered to be evolving from revenue-generating platforms into financial property. Applying a high-growth income a number of of 50x to Ethereum’s community income, ARK estimated that greater than 90% of Ethereum’s market worth is attributed to its function as a financial asset. On the different hand, ARK acknowledged that Solana generated $1.4 billion in income, which implies that round 90% of its valuation is pushed by community utility.

The agency added that only some digital property will retain financial properties and function liquid shops of worth primarily based on its analysis.

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