Bitcoin vs. Ethereum: What Makes September 2025 Different for Crypto Market Leaders
September has lengthy carried a nasty repute in crypto. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum have repeatedly stumbled throughout this month, with historical past exhibiting sharp pullbacks or muted efficiency. It is broadly thought-about the weakest month for crypto, however 2025 appears to be like totally different in a number of methods: each belongings have lately touched new all-time highs, ETF flows now form market liquidity, and price cuts are again on the desk.
The query is whether or not September’s weak spot will as soon as once more weigh on crypto, or whether or not this cycle has shifted. And whether or not these two crypto stalwarts — Bitcoin and Ethereum — will once more transfer collectively, both in thick or skinny. Or will there be a change of destiny for one in all them?
Exchange Reserves and Withdrawals Tell a Mixed Story
Bitcoin’s alternate reserves dropped about 18.3% from final September, whereas Ethereum’s reserves fell roughly 10.3%. This appears to be like attention-grabbing, contemplating each belongings are at the moment buying and selling fairly near their all-time highs.
Both level to long-term accumulation traits, as fewer cash sit on exchanges able to promote.
But withdrawing addresses paints a extra complicated image.
Ethereum’s withdrawing addresses climbed from 53,333 in 2024 to greater than 60,000 this yr, reinforcing the bullish case of stronger self-custody and accumulation.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, noticed withdrawing addresses fall sharply from 35,347 final yr to only 11,967 at press time, exhibiting a weaker desire for self-custody and probably softer accumulation demand, but. But there may be extra to this image.
Even although Bitcoin’s accumulation demand appears to be like weak on paper, it leaves room for value development if a optimistic driver just like the September 2025 price cuts arrives. With Bitcoin’s historical past of stronger ETF inflows in September in comparison with Ethereum, the low variety of withdrawing addresses might be much less an indication of weak spot and extra a setup for incoming demand.
Profit Supply and the Risk of Selling Pressure Looms On Both
Both Bitcoin and Ethereum now present a a lot greater share of provide in revenue than a yr in the past. For Bitcoin, the share rose from 76.91% in September 2024 to 88.17% in September 2025. Ethereum’s share jumped even greater, from 73.83% to 92.77%.
This means most holders are sitting on positive aspects, traditionally a setup that encourages profit-taking.
With each belongings close to file highs throughout what’s normally the weakest month for crypto, September may see elevated promoting strain — until offset by structural inflows elsewhere. And simply pure numbers, ETH stays a high-risk case.
ETFs Add a New Dimension in 2025
This yr introduces a variable that previous Septembers didn’t have at this scale: ETF flows. Since launch, Bitcoin ETFs have drawn round $54.5 billion in lifetime inflows, whereas Ethereum ETFs — the newer product — have pulled in about $13.3 billion.
In the final 30 days, Ethereum ETFs noticed internet inflows of $4.08 billion, in contrast with outflows of $920 million for Bitcoin ETFs. That distinction has led many to say ETH is successful on this cycle.
Ethereum is consuming Bitcoin as lunch
Last 30 days:
ETH ETF netflow +4.08B
— Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) August 29, 2025
But digging into September knowledge exhibits a special story. For September 2025 to this point, Ethereum ETFs are already within the purple with nearly $135 million in internet outflows.
This repeats an analogous pattern from final September, which was additionally unfavorable. Bitcoin, in contrast, began this September with $332 million in internet inflows, much like September 2024, when BTC ETFs logged $1.26 billion in positive aspects.
That sample suggests September and price cuts have persistently favored BTC over ETH relating to ETF flows. Even with ETH’s large summer season inflows, its monitor file in September exhibits weak spot.
As Jeff Dorman put it:
“BTC is gold, however only a few care about gold. ETH is an app retailer — and tech investing is a much bigger market, he stated on X”
That helps clarify why ETH has pulled development capital. Still, within the weakest month for crypto, structural flows proceed to tilt towards Bitcoin. This risk is what we mentioned earlier within the ‘Withdrawing Activity’ part.
ETH/BTC Ratio and Market Dominance Point To Strength In Bitcoin
The ETH/BTC ratio has slipped from 0.043 final September to 0.038 immediately.
That decline exhibits Ethereum underperforming relative to Bitcoin regardless of ETF momentum, year-on-year.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s dominance rose from 57.46% to 58.82% over the identical interval, whereas Ethereum’s dominance fell from 15.02% to 13.79%.
In different phrases, even with Ethereum exhibiting higher near-term ETF flows, Bitcoin continues to carry structural management.
This reinforces why markets nonetheless deal with BTC as the chance benchmark, notably within the weakest month for crypto.
Short Squeeze Potential Tilts Toward Bitcoin
Another short-term ingredient is liquidation knowledge. In the 30-day timeframe, Bitcoin has $5.24 billion briefly positions stacked in opposition to simply $1.83 billion in longs. This imbalance will increase the possibility of a brief squeeze if costs transfer greater.
Ethereum appears to be like extra balanced, with $6.55 billion in shorts and $6.10 billion in longs.
That tilt means that if September produces any shock upside throughout what’s normally the weakest month for crypto, Bitcoin is healthier positioned to rally sharply on pressured liquidations.
The X Community additionally believes derivatives to carry the important thing in September:
September Expectations vs. Reality
Everyone is repeating the identical narrative proper now: “September is at all times purple.”
That mindset is precisely why most merchants will find yourself on the mistaken facet.Here’s the reality:
– Yes, traditionally September has been weak.
– But markets don’t… pic.twitter.com/PVkbr3RTNP
— CryptoStrix (@CryptoStrixx) August 30, 2025
Analysts Still Warn of Choppiness
Despite these setups, forecasts from analysts stay cautious. For Bitcoin, they warn that failure to carry $107,557 assist may open a deeper correction towards $103,931, whilst upside stays doable if resistance close to $111,961 breaks.
For Ethereum, the image is equally unsure. Analysts level to resistance round $4,579 and draw back dangers if the worth closes beneath $4,156. Choppy range-bound motion stays the bottom case, strengthened by high revenue provide and divergence on RSI indicators. Simply put, promoting strain would nonetheless outweigh the rallying makes an attempt if the same old September narrative holds.
September’s Outlook: Weakest Month for Crypto, But Context Has Changed
September has usually been the weakest month for crypto, with BTC and ETH each exhibiting poor monitor data. The uncommon positive aspects in 2023 and 2024 did little to shift that pattern.
In 2025, the setup appears to be like totally different: each cash are close to file highs, ETFs are driving flows, and one other price lower is predicted. The final September price lower — a 50 bps transfer in 2024 — aligned with stronger Bitcoin flows (bear in mind ETFs), not Ethereum.
This time, high revenue provide and weak self-custody nonetheless level to promoting. Both BTC and ETH could face headwinds, but when there may be upside, Bitcoin is extra more likely to lead with the buildup demand supposedly rising. Altcoins linked to Ethereum could not profit, leaving the broader market underneath strain.
The submit Bitcoin vs. Ethereum: What Makes September 2025 Different for Crypto Market Leaders appeared first on BeInCrypto.
