Bitcoin’s cycle clock points to a final high by late October, will ETFs rewrite history?
Bitcoin price trades close to $117,000 after the Federal Reserve resolution on rates of interest, because the 1,065-day post-halving window approaches.
The Fed lower charges by 25bps yesterday, inserting Bitcoin’s near-term path on the intersection of coverage and a cycle marker Axios says has traditionally captured a “final high” roughly 1,065 days after a prior cycle low.
The take a look at window runs via late September and early October, then the market will commerce into Thanksgiving on circulate, greenback, and price dynamics that may both prolong the advance or begin the topping course of that prior cycles paired with drawdowns of 40 to 60 %, in accordance to Axios.
Spot ETF demand is the primary lever to watch as a result of it turns the cycle into a circulate downside. According to CoinShares’ latest weekly fund-flow update, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs noticed renewed web inflows in late August and early September, measured in billions of {dollars}, whereas SoSoValue tracked a mid-September multi-session influx streak with a single-day print of round $260 million on September 15.
Those figures distinction with the post-halving issuance of about 452 Bitcoin per day, calculated as 3.125 Bitcoin per block occasions roughly 144 blocks per day. When multi-day ETF demand absorbs a number of thousand Bitcoin per week, the market’s skill to distribute stock on the highs narrows, and topping processes can lengthen into a plateau somewhat than a single peak.
Macro situations set the second lever.
This month, the euro touched a four-year high in opposition to the greenback as lower expectations elevated, whereas front-end Treasury yields eased into the assembly.
A softer greenback lowers international monetary situations and sometimes correlates with greater beta throughout danger property. At the identical time, home inflation has cooled from final 12 months’s tempo, with August headline CPI at 2.5 % 12 months over 12 months and core at 3.0 %, in accordance to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The coverage end result will form whether or not these tailwinds persist or fade. Throughout the remainder of 2025, cuts with dovish language that emphasizes progress on inflation and downplays the necessity for fast reversals would help the greenback’s drift decrease and prolong the chance window.
Cuts that emphasizes vigilance on inflation and a restricted runway for additional easing would hold charges sticky and cut back the impulse. A no-cut end result was a low-probability department, but it might have tightened monetary situations into quarter-end and left ETF demand to carry extra of the load.
Mining economics body how deeply worth strikes are transmitted to the provision facet. Hashrate has hovered round 1.0 to 1.12 zettahash per second in current weeks, with community problem close to a document round 136 trillion, in accordance to Hashrate Index monitoring.
That backdrop retains hashprice close to 53 to 55 {dollars} per petahash per day, ranges broadly in line with Luxor’s spot readings this month. Because hashprice scales roughly with Bitcoin worth and inversely with hashrate, bands for This fall could be approximated by combining worth paths with modest hashrate creep as new rigs energize. Fees stay a smaller element within the present lull, so worth carries many of the sign into miner money circulate.
A easy baseline clarifies the inputs that feed situation bands via Thanksgiving, November 27.
| Baseline enter | Value | Source or methodology |
|---|---|---|
| Spot worth anchor | ~$116,000 | Market stage right now |
| Implied volatility | ~30–40% (near-dated) | Deribit DVOL context in early September |
| Issuance | ~452 BTC/day | 3.125 BTC subsidy × ~144 blocks |
| Hashrate | ~1.0–1.1 ZH/s trending up | Hashrate Index |
| Hashprice | ~$53–$55 per PH/day | Luxor-referenced spot |
With these inputs, the grid under lays out worth and miner hashprice ranges into late November throughout coverage tone and ETF circulate states. These are bands, not level targets, designed to mirror how lower tone and web flows propagate into worth and miner income underneath low-fee situations and modest hashrate progress.
| ETF flows Fed end result | Cut, dovish tone | Cut, hawkish tone | No lower |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sustained web inflows (multi-week >$1–2B) | BTC $125k–$145k, hashprice $57–$66/PH/day | BTC $110k–$125k, hashprice $48–$58/PH/day | BTC $105k–$120k, hashprice $45–$55/PH/day |
| Flat or web outflows | BTC $115k–$125k, hashprice $50–$57/PH/day | BTC $95k–$110k, hashprice $40–$50/PH/day | BTC $80k–$95k, hashprice $33–$45/PH/day |
The placement of the cycle clock issues for the way these bands are interpreted
Axios frames prior “final highs” occurring close to the 1,065-day mark, then transitioning to drawdowns that had been much less extreme within the ETF period than in earlier cycles. That provides a second read-through for buyers watching the tape into early October.
My personal evaluation flagged Nov. 1 as a potential date for the cycle peak based mostly on earlier cycle peaks extending from the final halving by roughly 100 days.
However, if the window delivers a high and ETF demand stays sturdy, the end result could be a rounded high with shallower retracements.
If the window passes with out a new high and flows flip blended, the market can migrate towards the center cells of the grid the place worth oscillates underneath the prior peak whereas hashprice is constrained by gradual hashrate will increase.
Policy tone will colour the circulate of information virtually instantly. Per Business Insider’s breakdown of meeting paths, a dovish lower converts to a neater greenback backdrop and a steeper danger urge for food curve, which traditionally pulls incremental demand into equities and crypto, whereas a hawkish lower narrows that curve and places extra weight on idiosyncratic flows.
A no-cut end result would have examined the decrease bands within the desk because it removes the near-term easing impulse and tends to agency the greenback. The CPI profile reduces the necessity for restrictive surprises, in accordance to the BLS figures, but the chair’s emphasis on information dependence can hold rate-path uncertainty within the foreground even when a first lower arrives.
ETF circulate streaks are the cleanest high-frequency metric to monitor in opposition to this coverage backdrop. CoinShares’ weekly information present measurement and regional composition, and SoSoValue’s every day tallies map whether or not the post-announcement periods prolong or fade the bid.
Translating these numbers into provide absorption is easy
At $115,000 to $120,000 per Bitcoin, one billion {dollars} of web influx equates to roughly 8,300 to 8,700 Bitcoin. Weekly web inflows of $1.5 to $2.5 billion suggest 13,000 to 21,000 Bitcoin, or roughly 4 to seven occasions weekly issuance.
Sustained ratios above one, even with reasonable outflows on some days, construct a structural cushion underneath spot that may pull realized volatility decrease and compress the left tail within the higher grid cells.
Miner stability sheets flip from a trailing indicator to a stress indicator if worth trades the decrease bands. With problem close to a document and electrical energy prices rising for some operators, the mixture of worth dips towards 95,000 {dollars} and regular hashrate would push hashprice into the low 40s per petahash per day.
That stage sometimes reopens hedging exercise and delayed capex somewhat than wholesale shutdowns, though company-level thresholds differ. According to Hashrate Index updates on public miner expansions, capability additions stay within the pipeline, so hashrate creep of three to 7 % into November is a affordable working assumption for the desk above.
Through Thanksgiving, the narrative anchor stays the identical.
The market is weighing a first coverage lower that shapes the greenback and front-end charges, ETF web demand that both absorbs or releases provide relative to a 452-Bitcoin every day issuance, and an approaching 1,065-day cycle marker that Axios argues traditionally aligns with a final high and subsequent drawdown.
The window falls in late September and early October, then consideration shifts to whether or not post-decision flows and macro situations verify or reject the cycle script.
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