Bitcoin’s Decay Signals the Most Severe Bearish Pivot Since the LUNA Collapse – A 2022 Echo
Bitcoin is struggling to carry the $65,000 stage as market sentiment drifts towards apathy following weeks of muted worth motion and declining participation. Volatility has compressed noticeably, and merchants seem hesitant to commit recent capital whereas macro uncertainty and liquidity constraints proceed to weigh on danger belongings. The lack of decisive momentum has left Bitcoin consolidating close to a technically delicate zone, the place each bulls and bears appear reluctant to take aggressive positions.
A current CryptoQuant report supplies extra context by means of on-chain positioning information. According to the evaluation, throughout the early February correction, the indicator dropped to roughly -0.0016, reflecting measurable weak point in underlying community exercise. This improvement occurred after Bitcoin had already closed beneath the Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price (AVWAP) tied to the most up-to-date halving on the weekly timeframe — a stage usually monitored as a structural reference for market positioning.
Trading beneath this anchored metric suggests lowered conviction amongst market individuals and probably weaker cost-basis help. While such conditions don’t essentially suggest imminent draw back, they sometimes correspond with transitional phases marked by uncertainty, subdued participation, and cautious capital deployment as the market searches for directional readability.
Bearish Confluence Signals Echo Prior Cycle Dynamics
The report highlights that the final comparable bearish confluence following an all-time high occurred in May 2022, a interval that finally preceded a chronic corrective part. According to the evaluation, this comparability is predicated on a mixture of structural indicators moderately than remoted worth motion, particularly the BTC Growth Rate Difference between Market Cap and Realized Cap — an indicator developed by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju — alongside Anchored VWAP ranges tied to the third and fourth Bitcoin halvings.
The Growth Rate Difference metric evaluates whether or not market capitalization growth is outpacing the underlying realized capitalization, which displays the aggregated price foundation of cash on-chain. When this hole narrows or turns unfavorable, it usually alerts weakening speculative momentum and lowered capital inflows relative to present holder positioning.
At the identical time, Bitcoin buying and selling beneath key halving-anchored AVWAP ranges suggests diminished structural help from long-term price bases. Historically, these ranges have functioned as reference zones for institutional and macro-oriented traders.
Together, these indicators don’t assure additional draw back, however they do point out a fragile market construction. Such circumstances sometimes require both renewed liquidity inflows or sustained accumulation earlier than a convincing restoration part can develop.
Bitcoin Price Tests Key Support As Downtrend Persists
Bitcoin’s weekly construction continues to replicate a corrective part, with worth struggling to stabilize close to the mid-$60,000 vary after a pointy rejection from the $110,000–$120,000 zone seen late final yr. The chart reveals a transparent transition from bullish growth to distribution, adopted by a sustained sequence of decrease highs and decrease lows — a sample sometimes related to weakening momentum moderately than consolidation.
Technically, Bitcoin is now buying and selling beneath main shifting averages that beforehand acted as dynamic help. The shorter-term common has already rolled over decisively, whereas the longer-term development line stays upward sloping however more and more distant from present worth motion. Sustained buying and selling beneath these ranges normally displays cautious sentiment and lowered upside conviction.
Volume spikes throughout current selloffs counsel lively distribution moderately than passive drift decrease. However, declining participation afterward may point out partial exhaustion of aggressive sellers, probably opening the door for a stabilization part if demand returns.
From a structural perspective, the $60,000–$62,000 zone seems to operate as fast help, whereas the $70,000–$75,000 vary represents the first significant resistance band. Unless Bitcoin decisively reclaims greater ranges with sturdy quantity, the broader development stays fragile, with consolidation or extra draw back danger nonetheless believable.
Featured picture from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
