Bitcoin’s Risk-Off Signal Weakens: Is the Market Finally Learning to Handle Volatility?
Although Bitcoin surged above $125,000 in the first week of October 2025, its six-year “Uptober” profitable streak should still be in danger. Historically, October has delivered sturdy returns since 2013, with solely two crimson years, 2014 and 2018, and uninterrupted positive aspects from 2019 via 2024.
However, with simply hours left earlier than the month-to-month shut, the information suggests this one might break that sample. Fresh on-chain indicators warn that Bitcoin should quickly reclaim the holders’ cost-basis zone to keep away from renewed draw back stress and a possible extension of the present correction section.
Deep Correction Fear Looms
As per Bitcoin Vector, every time BTC revisits the $106,000-$108,000 vary, the Risk-Off Signal weakens, exhibiting that volatility shocks are being absorbed extra successfully, an indication of a mature market. Nevertheless, the agency warns that sustaining this stability depends upon reclaiming the holders’ cost-basis zone in the close to time period. Without that restoration, bearish stress might construct once more, which might find yourself deepening the current correction cycle.
Meanwhile, Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that Bitcoin’s present stagnation stems from a wave of profit-taking by long-term holders (LTHs). Data exhibits this cohort of buyers bought roughly 810,000 BTC since July 1, lowering their holdings from 15.5 million to 14.6 million. Bitcoin nonetheless achieved two contemporary all-time highs regardless of that promoting stress, as market demand remained sturdy. Adler added that if LTHs persist in offloading cash, Bitcoin’s value development might stay restricted, preserving the market’s bullish potential underneath constraint for the foreseeable future.
In a associated growth, CryptoQuant additionally found that long-term Bitcoin whales, veteran buyers who’ve weathered a number of market cycles, have realized one among their largest income of 2025, value round $271 million. This is the third main revenue spike of the yr. Such occasions typically lead to sharp value actions as liquidity adapts to whale exercise. Analysts consider that whales could also be both anticipating short-term draw back or rebalancing their holdings.
The subsequent key sign lies with short-term holders – in the event that they soak up these income, consolidation might observe, and if promoting accelerates, a broader market cooldown might emerge.
$123,000 Target If Bulls Hold the Line
In a press release to CryptoPotato, Arthur Azizov, Founder and Investor at B2 Ventures, stated Bitcoin is at present buying and selling inside an outlined vary after transferring sideways since July 2025. The asset just lately bounced off the decrease boundary of this vary, in what appeared to be a possible begin of a rebound.
If broader market circumstances stay favorable, Azizov expects Bitcoin to transfer towards $123,000 and probably retest its all-time high earlier than the finish of the yr. However, if Bitcoin slips beneath the essential $100,000 degree and consolidates there, it might prolong its decline to the $96,000-$93,000 zone. The founder added that $100,000 stays a psychologically necessary threshold and a powerful assist space, very similar to in June 2025 when Bitcoin rebounded from comparable ranges. He went on to add,
“Looking at the most up-to-date upward wave, which started in April 2025, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement degree lies round $91,000. Interestingly, that degree additionally aligns with a weekly imbalance zone, which makes it a probably highly effective reversal space if the value ever reaches it. That stated, I don’t consider Bitcoin will fall that low – there are just too many components supporting the asset proper now, stopping such a deep pullback.”
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