Bitcoin’s Safety Net Comes into View as Galaxy Digital Warns of Deeper Pullback
Bitcoin’s sharp late-January sell-off has intensified debate over whether or not the market is approaching a cyclical backside—or merely getting into the subsequent leg decrease.
According to Galaxy Digital’s head of analysis, Alex Thorn, current worth motion suggests draw back dangers stay elevated, with Bitcoin doubtlessly drifting towards long-term technical help ranges within the weeks or months forward.
Galaxy Digital Warns Bitcoin Could Drift Toward Long-Term Support Near $58,000
In a analysis notice despatched to Galaxy purchasers, Thorn stated the Bitcoin worth is prone to drift decrease, in the direction of $70,000, then doubtlessly all the way down to the 200w MA (roughly $60,000) over the subsequent weeks or months.
“…traditionally, these ranges have been robust entry factors for long-term traders,” wrote Thorn.
Bitcoin fell roughly 15% between January 28 and January 31, with a ten% drop on Saturday alone triggering more than $2 billion in long liquidations throughout derivatives venues. Notably, this was one of the most important liquidation occasions on document.
Prices briefly slipped as low as $75,644 on the Coinbase trade, pushing Bitcoin practically 10% below the average cost basis of US spot Bitcoin ETFs, estimated at round $84,000.
At one level, BTC additionally dipped below Strategy’s average purchase price near $76,000 and approached its April 2025 “Tariff Tantrum” low.
The drawdown has left a rising share of traders underwater. Thorn famous that roughly 46% of Bitcoin’s circulating provide is now held at a loss, a degree traditionally related to late-stage bear markets.
On-chain information additionally reveals a skinny ownership zone between $70,000 and $80,000, an space Thorn says might enhance the probability of additional draw back as demand is examined.
“On-chain information, weak spot at key worth ranges, macro uncertainty, and a scarcity of near-term catalysts recommend BTC will commerce decrease in the direction of the 200-week shifting common over the subsequent weeks or months,” Thorn wrote in a follow-up publish.
He added that the realized worth, at the moment close to $56,000, and the 200-week shifting common round $58,000 have traditionally converged close to cycle bottoms.
Bitcoin’s Macro Narrative Weakens as Gold Leads, however Rotation Hopes Emerge
Macro dynamics are additionally weighing on sentiment. Bitcoin has failed to rally alongside gold and silver amid heightened geopolitical and financial uncertainty. This undermines its narrative as a debasement hedge.
As commodities attracted safe-haven flows, Bitcoin as an alternative lagged, an uncommon divergence that Thorn says has “labored in opposition to” the asset’s narrative.
Still, not all alerts level decisively decrease. While whale accumulation stays muted, long-term holder profit-taking, which averaged roughly $500 million per day by way of 2025, has begun to abate. Historically, a slowdown in long-term holder promoting has coincided with market bottoms.
Meanwhile, some market watchers see potential parallels with 2020. Bull Theory pointed to August of that yr, when gold topped earlier than capital rotated into threat property, fueling Bitcoin’s explosive rally into 2021.
With the ISM index once more above 50, signaling financial growth, and gold lately pulling again sharply, the agency argued that “we might now see a rotation into risk-on property over the approaching months.”
While Galaxy Digital sees restricted proof of a definitive backside, the agency argues that if Bitcoin revisits its realized worth or 200-week shifting common, these ranges might as soon as once more act as a long-term security internet—simply as they’ve in previous cycles.
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