Bitcoin’s supply in loss doubled as price dipped below $112,000

Bitcoin entered the third week of September underneath promoting stress that tested investor resilience however fell in need of sparking the kind of capitulation that has outlined earlier drawdowns in 2025.

From Sept. 17 by means of Sept. 22, the market absorbed a $3,759 decline in spot price, accompanied by a marked improve in the proportion of cash and UTXOs held at a loss. However, in statistical phrases, the episode sits squarely in the center of this yr’s distribution of stress occasions, not on the extremes.

On Sept. 17, Bitcoin price closed at $116,478 with 6.16% of circulating supply in loss and a couple of.68% of UTXOs underwater. Five days later, as the price slipped to $112,719, these figures had risen to 11.12% and 5.35%, respectively.

This represents an growth of almost 5 proportion factors in loss-bearing supply and a couple of.7 proportion factors in UTXOs at a loss. Clear will increase, however properly below the yr’s worst readings.

Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), a measure of combination paper revenue relative to realized value foundation, fell from 0.541 to 0.524 throughout the identical window, pushing the market towards decrease profitability however nonetheless removed from crucial thresholds.

Spot quantity elevated by 26.7%, signaling lively promoting into the down-move, earlier than collapsing on Sept. 23 as price steadied close to $113,163. The sample displays a brief, sharp growth of exercise across the Monday downturn, adopted by a lull somewhat than continued acceleration. This sequence distinguishes the episode from earlier in the yr, when declines have been met with persistent quantity spikes and cascading losses.

Comparing these September readings to the broader yr clarifies the excellence. During a deeper drawdown to the mid-$70,000s in late March and early April, supply in loss peaked close to 26% and UTXOs in loss close to 12%, with NUPL falling to 0.425. Those values positioned the spring cluster in the acute tail of the distribution, equal to Ninety fifth-99th percentile stress prints. In distinction, the Sept. 22 numbers map to roughly the 59th percentile for supply in loss, the 69th for UTXOs in loss, and the twenty fifth for NUPL.

That middle-of-the-distribution placement has implications for the way the market can take in additional draw back. It exhibits that even a modest $3,700 retracement at six-figure costs can push a number of proportion factors of supply into loss, reflecting the elasticity of revenue margins close to all-time highs.

However, because of the growth stopping properly in need of the thresholds which have traditionally coincided with deeper capitulation (i.e., STH realized price), it leaves appreciable room earlier than the market encounters true stress. This downtick elevated unrealized losses however didn’t convey the system close to breaking factors.

This setup creates a binary pressure. If price stabilizes or recovers, the elevated share of underwater supply can rapidly flip again to revenue, reinforcing holders’ conviction. However, if declines resume, the loss percentages may speed up towards the 20%+ zone the place historic stress occasions have clustered. Monitoring these thresholds, together with supply in loss above 23%, UTXOs in loss above 10%, and NUPL underneath 0.47, stays the very best information for figuring out when stress is shifting from peculiar to extraordinary.

Therefore, the Sept. 17 to Sept. 23 interval stands as a jolt somewhat than a rupture. Bitcoin’s market construction absorbed a average price decline, redistributed paper losses throughout cohorts, and produced a visual however not alarming contraction in profitability.

In distinction to the dramatic stress occasions earlier in 2025, this week confirmed the market’s resilience at greater nominal costs, whereas reminding members that unrealized margins stay delicate to retracements below essential psychological ranges.

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