Bitwise’s Matt Hougan Reveals Why Most Crypto Treasury Firms Should Actually Trade at a Discount

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan outlined a valuation framework for digital asset treasury corporations (DATs) and stated that evaluation of the sector typically misunderstands how these companies must be priced relative to the property they maintain.

In a collection of posts, Hougan stated the core query for valuing any DAT is to contemplate what the corporate could be value if it had a mounted lifespan.

Illiquidity, Expenses, and Risk

He explained that a Bitcoin-focused DAT saying a same-day shutdown and distribution of its holdings would commerce precisely at the worth of its bitcoin, or an mNAV of 1.0, whereas extending the liquidation timeline to at least one yr introduces circumstances that may push valuations above or under the underlying asset worth.

Hougan stated three major elements justify a low cost to mNAV: illiquidity, bills, and danger. Illiquidity displays the cheaper price buyers would pay at present for Bitcoin they’d obtain in a yr, and Hougan means that the low cost might be 5-10%. Expenses straight scale back investor worth, and a DAT holding $100 value of BTC per share however paying executives $10 per share per yr would warrant a corresponding 10% low cost. Risk, outlined as the opportunity of operational errors or different failures, should even be factored into pricing.

On the opposite aspect, the Bitwise exec stated DATs could commerce at a premium provided that they’re rising their crypto-per-share, and famous that within the US, that is the only real purpose for such a premium. He recognized 4 methods DATs use to perform this: issuing USD-denominated debt to purchase crypto, lending out crypto to earn curiosity, utilizing derivatives equivalent to writing name choices to generate extra revenue, and buying crypto at a low cost.

Discounted acquisitions can happen via buying locked property from foundations in search of liquidity, buying one other DAT buying and selling under its asset worth, repurchasing its personal discounted shares, or shopping for a cash-flow-generating enterprise and allocating the proceeds to crypto.

“High Hurdle”

Hougan added that low cost elements are usually sure whereas premium-enabling elements are usually unsure. This finally ends up creating what he described as a high hurdle for many DATs. As a consequence, he stated most corporations will commerce at a low cost, with solely a restricted variety of sturdy performers buying and selling at a premium. Using the instance of a Bitcoin DAT scheduled to liquidate in 12 months, he stated truthful worth will be estimated by calculating bills, including a danger low cost, and offsetting these with expectations for will increase in bitcoin-per-share.

Although DATs don’t have mounted lifespans in follow, the exec stated this extends fairly than modifications the mannequin, as a result of bills and dangers compound over time, whereas corporations that may develop crypto-per-share constantly could turn into extremely worthwhile.

He additionally stated bigger DATs have structural benefits, together with simpler entry to debt markets, bigger swimming pools of crypto for lending, deeper choices markets, and broader alternatives for mergers, acquisitions, or different discounted offers. While DATs have largely moved in tandem over the previous six months, Hougan expects higher divergence forward, with a small variety of companies executing effectively sufficient to commerce at a premium and plenty of others buying and selling at a low cost.

Meanwhile, DAT corporations have invested at least $42.7 billion into crypto acquisitions in 2025, in keeping with CoinGecko’s current report. It was found that $22.6 billion was deployed within the third quarter alone, which makes it the strongest quarter on file for accumulation. Altcoin-focused DAT corporations accounted for $10.8 billion, or 47.8%, of Q3 spending, however Bitcoin-focused companies continued to dominate total exercise.

Since the beginning of 2025, Bitcoin DAT corporations have bought greater than $30 billion in BTC, which represented 70.3% of whole acquisitions. Ethereum counterparts adopted with $7.9 billion in purchases, most of it in August, whereas SOL, BNB, WLFI, and different property made up 11.2% of annual spending.

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