Blockchain Adoption Pushes Ahead Despite U.S. Regulatory Uncertainty: Analyst
Blockchain adoption continues to develop throughout institutional finance at the same time as U.S. regulatory readability stays elusive, in accordance with a brand new analyst notice from Clear Street.
The agency argues that whereas delays to the proposed Clarity Act might sluggish components of the home crypto market, they haven’t derailed broader institutional engagement with tokenization, stablecoins and on-chain monetary infrastructure.
The Senate Banking Committee postponed a scheduled markup of the Clarity Act following opposition from Coinbase. Although the Senate Agriculture Committee continues to be anticipated to overview the invoice on January 27, Clear Street analyst Owen Lau warns that the general legislative timeline might slip to March or later.
Concerns Over Stablecoin Competition
In feedback cited by Clear Street, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong outlined a number of considerations with the draft laws, most notably the danger that financial institution lobbying might restrict the flexibility of crypto exchanges to cross stablecoin rewards by way of to customers.
Clear Street views this consequence as more and more seemingly exterior of narrowly outlined activity-based rewards similar to funds, loyalty packages, wallets or staking.
Such restrictions, the agency argues, would tilt the aggressive panorama in favor of conventional banks by permitting them to retain curiosity spreads whereas lowering client advantages related to stablecoins.
“In our view the invoice dangers shifting from its unique aim of selling crypto innovation towards defending financial institution margins and constraining competitors,” writes Lau.
Clear Street sees two potential paths ahead: the crypto business both accepts laws with unfavorable phrases or disengages from the method fully. Either state of affairs might sluggish U.S. blockchain adoption and weaken the worldwide competitiveness of U.S.-issued stablecoins.
Institutional Momentum Continues Without a Market Structure Bill
Despite these regulatory headwinds, Clear Street confused that blockchain adoption has continued to advance even within the absence of a complete U.S. market construction framework.
Major monetary establishments together with Vanguard, Charles Schwab, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan Chase, the New York Stock Exchange and Bermuda-based entities have all expanded their engagement with blockchain-based merchandise and infrastructure.
Growth areas highlighted by the agency embody tokenized cash market funds, tokenized equities and prediction markets. Clear Street added that whereas a supportive coverage backdrop would seemingly speed up adoption, institutional participation has confirmed resilient with out favorable laws.
Revised Outlooks for Crypto-Exposed Firms
Reflecting each regulatory uncertainty and evolving market circumstances, Clear Street updates its forecasts and value targets for a number of crypto-linked corporations.
For Bakkt (BLSH), the agency raised its fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA estimate to $37.8 million from $35.5 million, pushed by stronger-than-expected transaction income.
Full-year 2026 and 2027 adjusted EBITDA estimates had been additionally modestly elevated on continued power in subscription and providers income. However, Clear Street lowered its value goal to $50 from $57 whereas sustaining a Buy ranking.
For Coinbase, Clear Street diminished its fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA estimate to $630 million from $748 million citing weaker-than-expected December buying and selling volumes. While consensus estimates of $731 million seem optimistic, the agency notes that the long-term blockchain adoption thesis stays intact.
Coinbase’s value goal was reduce to $344 from $415 to mirror decrease earnings expectations and a compressed business valuation a number of with the Buy ranking unchanged.
Stablecoin Growth Still Intact
Clear Street additionally up to date its outlook for Circle (CRCL), decreasing its fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA estimate to $112 million from $116 million resulting from a lower-than-expected common USDC market capitalization. The agency estimates that USDC’s ending market cap rose 72% year-on-year and a couple of% quarter-on-quarter through the interval.
While near-term estimates had been trimmed, Clear Street mentioned longer-term adoption drivers stay intact, together with prediction markets, tokenization, synthetic intelligence functions and cross-border funds. Growth in non-core revenue streams might additionally present upside, the agency added. Circle’s value goal was diminished to $85 from $110 with a Hold ranking maintained.
Outlook
Clear Street concludes that whereas regulatory delays and political compromise might weigh on sentiment within the close to time period, blockchain adoption is more and more being pushed by institutional demand slightly than legislative momentum alone.
“Institutional use instances proceed to develop even with out a favorable Clarity Act,” the agency mentioned, including that clearer coverage would speed up adoption — however its absence has not stopped it.
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