Bull or bear? Next $106k retest could decide Bitcoin’s fate
Bitcoin has handled $106,400 as a pivot throughout the present cycle, appearing as each resistance and help.
Price has repeatedly clustered close to the extent, cleared it on retests, and expanded towards the following channel bands, whereas breaks beneath the extent usually required a restore part earlier than any advance.
My charts beneath present price channels which were most influential to Bitcoin for the reason that begin of 2024, with $106,400 highlighted by the stable yellow line.
In mid-December 2024, the worth first broke $106,000 after a gentle climb from sub-$100,000 areas. Once the extent cleared, the worth pressed to $107,800 earlier than failing a retest of $106,400 and falling again into the mid-$90,000s.
Late January 2025 introduced an identical sample with extra back-and-fill. Bitcoin met $106,400 from beneath, then stalled. Follow-through carried the intraday worth into the $108,300 vary earlier than once more failing the retest.
Even with noise contained in the channel grid, the inflection at $106,400 organized the motion, with the market repeatedly checking the extent earlier than shifting again down. The consistency of this habits throughout weeks is what makes the road helpful for danger administration.
By late May 2025, the connection flipped. The worth examined $106,400 twice from beneath after which twice extra from above earlier than utilizing this stage as help a number of extra instances.
Bounces carried to $111,900 and $110,300, then momentum pale on the sixth retest, and a grind decrease started.
During this era, $106,400 behaved like a flooring. As lengthy as closes held above it, sellers did not press the following decrease bands in measurement. Once that flooring lastly gave method by the top of the month, restoration took longer, reinforcing the concept shedding the pivot adjustments the tempo.
June 2025 illustrated the help and resistance perform once more.
After dipping beneath the extent in mid-month and subsequently being rejected 4 extra instances (with one intraday breakout above), Bitcoin finally reclaimed $106,400 on the finish of the month, held a number of intraday highs, and superior to $108,300 and $109,400.
The response after every retest was orderly, which is typical when a extensively watched pivot is revered. Traders who waited for affirmation on the line had specific invalidation if the worth fell again by $106,400, and clear targets within the higher bands if it held.
This noticed Bitcoin crack into worth discovery territory and finally attain its cycle high of $126,000. We didn’t see $106,400 examined once more till the Trump commerce tariff $19 billion wipeout on October 10.
The sequence from October to early November 2025 reveals the opposite facet.
A decisive drop from larger ranges depraved all the way down to $106,400 earlier than surging again towards $115,000. Bitcoin has tried to carry the pivot a number of instances, and as of press time, it’s about to mark its eighth check.
So far, every time $106,400 has been examined since we hit $126,000, the worth instantly bounced again towards $110,000 – $115,000.
Ominously, Bitcoin has by no means held $106,400 after eight retests earlier than.
These repeated interactions matter as a result of they compress a posh set of variables right into a single reference.
$106,400 aligns with the center of the present channel pack on the displayed framework, which suggests it sits close to a fair-value axis the place each patrons and sellers discover liquidity.
When the worth is accepted above this stage, the trail of least resistance shifts to the following higher cluster. When the worth rejects or loses its stage, the market usually has to rebuild participation beneath earlier than patrons regain management once more.
The sample throughout the screenshots could be summarized as follows.
| Date window | Interaction with $106,400 | Immediate end result | Next band(s) reached/examined |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16–22, 2024 | First breakout above $106,000; failed retest of $106,400 | Rejection and drop into mid-$90,000s | $107,800 |
| Jan 20–27, 2025 | Approach from beneath, stall, then failed retest after intraday push larger | Consolidation beneath the pivot | $108,300 |
| May 19–31, 2025 | Flip from resistance to help; held a number of instances, then misplaced flooring late-month | Bounces then grind decrease after breakdown | $111,900 and $110,300 earlier than slipping beneath |
| Jun 9–30, 2025 | Reclaimed and held after a number of failed mid-month assessments | Orderly advance and affirmation of pivot | $108,300 and $109,400 |
| Jul–Sep 2025 | Consolidation above; not retested throughout rally to cycle high | Cycle high formation | $126,000 peak (no contact with pivot) |
| Oct 10–21, 2025 | Tariff shock wick to $106,400, sharp rebound | Bounce towards $115K | $110,000-$115,000 |
| Oct 22–Nov 3, 2025 | Repeated retests of $106,400 (approaching eighth as of press time) | Still holding intraday, however danger of loss rising | Rebounds towards $110K-$115K |
For merchants who map choices to ranges, the playbook is simple.
When worth clears $106,400 and confirms on a retest, consideration naturally shifts to the following overhead clusters round $107,800, $108,300, $109,400, and $110,500, which line up with the dashed yellow rungs on the displayed ladder.
Failure again by the pivot returns focus to the draw back stack round $105,500, $104,500, and $103,800, the place the market has repeatedly discovered liquidity throughout breakdowns.
This framework doesn’t predict path; it defines areas the place execution high quality tends to enhance and the place invalidation is unambiguous.
This stage additionally helps reconcile conflicting alerts from momentum or funding.
During durations when momentum turns however worth nonetheless sits above $106,400, the trail to larger bands usually stays open so long as the pivot holds.
During durations when by-product positioning seems crowded, but the market can’t reclaim its stage, the burden of proof stays with patrons till acceptance returns. The end result is a sensible strategy to managing publicity with out overfitting to short-term indicators.
None of those assigns particular standing to a single quantity past its repeated use within the present construction. Markets evolve, and pivots migrate as distributions shift.
However, the charted channels have depicted intraday help and resistance ranges for nearly 2 years at this level.
The worth of $106,400 lies within the tape that retains returning to it, the reactions that type round it, and the readability it presents for planning the following commerce.
Thus, $106,400 seems to be functioning because the cycle’s stability level, and worth continues to deal with it accordingly..
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