Buy Bitcoin Now? Not Yet, Says Blackbay Capital President

Bitcoin’s newest pullback has not persuaded Blackbay Capital president Todd Butterfield to re-enter the market. In a contemporary BTC/USD each day chart on Bitfinex, shared on X, the Wyckoff specialist reiterates: “Yes, I’m nonetheless on the sidelines with#BTC. Our Wyckoff indicators are nonetheless not flashing BUY. We are new under the .382 retracement as effectively…”.

Wyckoff Analysis Predicts Deeper Bitcoin Price Correction

The chart covers May to 17 November 2025 and exhibits Bitcoin buying and selling at $92,838. Across this era Butterfield maps a textbook Wyckoff distribution. The advance into early summer season culminates in a Buying Climax (BC) simply above $123,000, adopted by an Automatic Reaction (AR) that establishes assist barely above $112,000. A Secondary Test (ST) revisits the BC space, confirming the white horizontal resistance band drawn across the $123,000 area.

Later, value marginally exceeds that ceiling in an Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD), earlier than failing again into the vary. Under Wyckoff logic this marks the terminal lure for late consumers and confirms that giant gamers are distributing. Once the UTAD fades, Bitcoin breaks under the AR line in a Sign of Weakness (SOW), then produces a decrease high labelled Last Point of Supply (LPSY), the place a rally stalls beneath former assist.

Trend metrics again the bearish construction. The 20-day easy transferring common sits at $103,132.2 and the 50-day SMA at $110,033.9, each sloping downward. With spot at $92,838, BTC is decisively under each transferring averages, in step with Wyckoff’s markdown part slightly than the beginning of a new accumulation.

Butterfield additionally overlays Fibonacci retracements of the previous uptrend. Two ranges are explicitly marked: the 0.382 retracement at $95,358.1 and the 0.5 retracement at $101,257.8. Bitcoin is presently under the 0.382 line, the situation he highlights in his publish as reinforcing a non-bullish stance. A small vertical bracket between present value and the 50% degree visually underscores how far BTC would wish to rebound to test a deeper retracement.

Below value, three proprietary Wyckoff indicators drive his determination to remain sidelined. The Wyckoff Optimism–Pessimism (Aggregate, 5) line tendencies steadily decrease and now sits close to –520.89K, signalling persistent internet promoting all through the distribution. The Wyckoff Force (Aggregate, 10) indicator has rolled into adverse territory at round –852.3, reflecting draw back progress backed by significant quantity, significantly on the SOW and follow-through promoting.

The Wyckoff Technometer (Aggregate, 50, 38, 5), plotted as an orange oscillator, has repeatedly flagged overbought circumstances above the 50 line close to earlier peaks in June, July, August and October. Today it reads 40.7—under overbought but nonetheless above the oversold band round 38. In Butterfield’s framework, that mid-range studying doesn’t qualify as a low-risk purchase zone.

At press time, BTC traded at $91,570.