CA Governor Hopeful Eric Swalwell Touts His Prediction Market Odds
With Gavin Newsom wrapping up his tenure as California’s governor (and 88% odds to run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028), all eyes are turning to his successor. And proper now, the political prediction markets are backing U.S. Congressmember Eric Swalwell, regardless of a current controversy round his eligibility to run.
Rep. Swalwell, 45, has represented California’s 14th congressional district since 2023 (having represented its fifteenth district a decade prior). On Jan. 19, Swalwell tweeted out a screenshot of the Kalshi market displaying his present odds at 50% to be the following governor of the Golden State.
For higher or worse, Swalwell’s publish is the most recent reminder that prediction market odds can function each a sign and a catalyst for momentum. And whereas the prediction markets present a useful test on sensational headlines and narrative noise, interpretation of the chances ought to at all times be approached with warning.
Swalwell’s rise to CA governor frontrunner
Swalwell, a Democrat, introduced his intention to run for governor on the Nov. 21 episode of Jimmy Kimmel Live!, becoming a member of a packed subject that features former consultant Katie Porter, former state controller Betty Yee, former State Assembly Speaker Antonio Villaraigosa, billionaire Tom Steyer, present Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond and former U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Xavier Becerra.
With lower than 5 months till the first, prediction markets are projecting Swalwell because the clear frontrunner, although it could be early to learn an excessive amount of into that. Kalshi’s market on “Who would be the subsequent governor of California? (Person)” has over $1.26 million in cumulative buying and selling quantity since opening Nov. 6, and presently places Swalwell at a 47% (48¢) probability of successful. The subsequent closest candidate is Matt Mahan priced at 22¢. Mahan is the present Democratic mayor of San Jose and has but to declare his gubernatorial marketing campaign.
Polymarket presently lists Swalwell at 65% to win the Democratic major for governor, and 45% to be the “California Governor Election Winner. Notably, Polymarket doesn’t have Mahan listed as a strike (buying and selling choice) as of Jan. 20. Swalwell’s odds have remained regular on Kalshi, hovering round 50% for the reason that begin of December, regardless of a current declare that he doesn’t meet the eligibility necessities to run for the workplace.
Eligibility problem barely impacts Swalwell’s odds
California’s 2026 Primary Election takes place on June 2. The major {qualifications} to run for Governor are:
- Be a U.S. citizen.
- Be a registered voter and in any other case “certified to vote for that workplace on the time that nomination papers are issued.”
- Don’t be “convicted of a felony involving accepting or giving, or providing to offer, any bribe, the embezzlement of public cash, extortion or theft of public cash, perjury, or conspiracy to commit any of these crimes.”
- Not have already served two phrases within the workplace.
- Make certain the Secretary of State has two copies of each earnings tax return within the 5 most up-to-date taxable years.
Online conservative character Joel Gilbert filed a lawsuit difficult Rep. Swalwell’s eligibility, according to ABC 10. Gilbert is a conservative filmmaker who has appeared on Alex Jones’s InfoWars as a visitor and host. He’s produced conspiracy movies about former President Barack Obama and Trayvon Martin (in addition to conspiracy documentaries about Elvis Presley and Paul McCartney, which Gilbert later categorised as “mockumentaries”).
In his lawsuit, Gilbert alleges that Rep. Swalwell owns no California property, that his everlasting residence is in Washington, D.C., and that he listed a Sacramento workplace constructing as his residence deal with on his candidate intention kind. Gilbert accuses Rep. Swalwell of not being a California citizen and thus, ineligible to run for governor.
“Because of the 1000’s of loss of life threats the Congressman has acquired, it’s completely authorized to record a marketing campaign workplace because the deal with for his authorized filings,” Swalwell’s marketing campaign responded in a press release.
“This nonsense declare comes from a MAGA blogger who made a movie claiming Elvis is alive,” reads the assertion. “We look ahead to beating him in courtroom. Swalwell has represented his Congressional district for the reason that 2012 election, and earlier than that, he was on the Dublin City Council and the planning fee. It is completely regular for campaigns to record their treasurer’s or lawyer’s deal with on some of these kinds.”
Despite the problem, Swalwell’s odds have solely dipped a couple of factors over the previous day. His odds have fluctuated extra over time on Polymarket, however have slipped only a couple factors, right down to round 45% within the wake of the eligibility problem. The state of affairs is an efficient instance of prediction markets serving as a gauge on media narratives. The lack of great market response hints that the eligibility problem could not maintain water, at the least at this level.
Kalshi: A political kingmaker? Or purchaser beware?
Swalwell is clearly pro-prediction markets, and in addition understands the potential energy of Kalshi as a marketing campaign software. Many consider that prediction markets don’t simply present useful forecasts, however they can be reflexive, influencing public notion or opinion. The market odds in Swalwell’s tweet portrayed him because the heavy favourite forward of the first, which may in flip enhance his momentum and standing in voters’ minds.
Tweeting about market odds will not be towards the principles. However, a earlier candidate for a similar workplace, Kyle Langford, pulled an identical stunt again in May 2025, however his actions did cross a line. Langford placed a $100 bet on himself and tweeted about it, however it was a transparent breach of the change’s buying and selling prohibitions available on the market.
With over $1.2 million in quantity (and over 20k contracts invested in “Yes” on Swalwell), some may see this as a legit measure of the race. On the opposite hand, Kalshi will not be restricted to California voters. And the market can flip at a second’s discover, particularly with over 280 days to go earlier than the election. In June 2025, forward of the Democratic major, an Emerson Poll was the primary to point out Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani (52%) trending forward of Cuomo (48%). Later that day, Cuomo’s odds on Kalshi cratered. Mamdani proceeded to climb from 18% to greater than 50%, whereas Cuomo’s odds fell from 70% to 46%. Mamdani, as we all know, went on to finish the “upset” to win the first and finally, the mayoral race.
The sign within the noise
Swalwell’s swagger, the recency of the lawsuit, and the truth that the first continues to be 5 months away are probably components in his odds not taking a bigger hit from the aforementioned eligibility problem. Or it could possibly be a sign that the markets don’t assume the problem might be profitable. Either manner, merchants ought to concentrate on the alerts and the noise that may transfer the chances in actual time, and take heed of the Cuomo-Mamdani ballot flip from final yr.
If he does develop into the following governor, Swalwell’s enthusiasm for prediction markets is likely to be a superb signal for prediction market buyers in California. Meanwhile, New York—the place Kalshi famously had a Times Square billboard monitoring the chances between future Mayor Mamdani and his challengers—desires to close down the platform’s operations within the state, per Gothamist.
The publish CA Governor Hopeful Eric Swalwell Touts His Prediction Market Odds appeared first on DeFi Rate.