Can Cardano Slip Below $0.30? ETF Speculation and Analyst Warnings Cloud ADA Outlook

Cardano (ADA) is buying and selling round $0.78–$0.80, struggling beneath a robust resistance at $0.83–$0.85, the place the 50/100/200-day EMAs converge. Prediction markets at present assign a 91%–95% probability of U.S. Cardano spot ETF approval, with dates tentatively set for late October 2025.

This narrative has helped stabilize sentiment after September’s decline. Bulls imagine institutional entry might mirror BTC/ETH’s ETF technique by rising liquidity and increasing demand.

However, choices exercise stays subdued, and current lengthy liquidations recommend merchants are cautious about chasing positive factors earlier than a transparent breakout. If ADA closes above $0.85, potential upward targets are $0.87 (Fib 0.382) and $0.90 (Fib 0.5).

Cardano (ADA) Key Levels: $0.78 Support, Then $0.75 and $0.71

The Cardano (ADA) near-term construction is a variety between $0.78 and $0.83 after a pullback from highs close to $0.95. Momentum has improved from oversold ranges, however Parabolic SAR stays above the worth, and the development hasn’t absolutely flipped.

Immediate assist is at $0.78, with deeper liquidity pockets at $0.75 and $0.71; a failure there exposes $0.68 because the final main protection. Analysts additionally level out a creating death-cross danger on decrease timeframes, implying rallies might fade with out new catalysts.

Macro components stay influential: tighter monetary situations or a Bitcoin retrace can scale back altcoin bids, capping ADA underneath resistance even when ETF headlines keep sturdy.

The 2026 Bear Case: Why Sub-$0.30 Isn’t Impossible

Beyond the subsequent few weeks, some strategists warn of a path the place ADA might revisit sub-$0.30 in 2026. The reasoning: at a roughly $34B market cap close to $0.80, multiples may shrink until utilization progress considerably accelerates.

While Cardano promotes research-driven upgrades (Ouroboros Leios, the Omega roadmap) and has an eight-year report with no downtime, critics level to gradual app adoption, capital shifting to newer ecosystems, and ETF consideration probably directing flows into a couple of massive caps.

If international liquidity tightens, ETFs underperform, or structural demand weakens, a protracted cycle might push ADA towards worth zones under $0.30, the place longer-term patrons may enter.

In the brief time period, watch $0.83–$0.85 for a development reversal and $0.78/$0.75 on the draw back. The ETF story offers ADA with an actual catalyst, however precise supply and demand should materialize. Without that, the 2026 sub-$0.30 situation stays a potential danger, particularly if macroeconomic headwinds emerge.

Cover picture from ChatGPT, ADAUSD chart from Tradingview