Can Stellar (XLM) Repeat Its 2017 Bull Run? 4 Signals Point to a Q4 Breakout

In 2017, Stellar (XLM) skilled a spectacular bull run, hovering from simply a few cents to a peak of $0.93. The surge delivered huge returns for buyers. In 2025, a number of indicators recommend that XLM is likely to be making ready to repeat that efficiency within the fourth quarter.

What are these indicators, and the way would possibly they affect the market? Here’s a detailed breakdown.

1. Stellar Network Activity Hits a Yearly High

According to Artemis knowledge, Stellar’s community exercise, measured by the Stellar Operations metric, has reached its highest degree previously yr.

“Stellar Operations” refers to particular person actions carried out on the Stellar community, equivalent to fund transfers, decentralized change (DEX) trades, or sensible contract executions. These actions characterize actual community utilization, impartial of worth actions.

The knowledge reveals that the Stellar community now processes greater than 69 million weekly transactions, which continues to climb. High community exercise usually strengthens a blockchain’s intrinsic worth, attracting more users and buyers.

In latest months, Stellar has additionally expanded its institutional partnerships. For instance, Uphold, a main crypto buying and selling platform, lately integrated EURC, a Euro-backed stablecoin issued by Circle, onto the Stellar community. Meanwhile, PayPal USD launched on Stellar last month.

These collaborations probably boosted Stellar’s on-chain exercise.

2. XLM’s Correlation With BTC and ETH Reaches an Annual Peak

The correlation between XLM and main crypto belongings like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) has risen steadily all through 2025.

According to CoinMetrics’ Spearman Correlation Index, the XLM-BTC correlation is round 0.75, whereas the XLM-ETH correlation hovers close to 0.7.

This robust correlation provides XLM a strategic benefit as a result of it tends to transfer in the identical course as BTC and ETH. Analysts venture that BTC might reach $200,000 and ETH might rise to $7,500 in Q4.

In the present (*4*), this correlation issues greater than ever. High alignment with BTC and ETH implies that buyers view XLM as sharing comparable ranges of danger and progress potential with the market’s main belongings.

3. Declining Supply Equality Ratio (SER) Signals Accumulation

The Supply Equality Ratio (SER), a metric that measures how evenly tokens are distributed between small and huge wallets, has dropped over the previous month, indicating a bullish accumulation development.

CoinMetrics defines SER because the ratio between the provision held by smaller addresses and that held by the highest 1% of addresses. Essentially, it displays how wealth is distributed throughout the Stellar community.

A protracted-term rise in SER suggests broader token distribution amongst smaller holders. However, a sharp drop in SER usually indicators that prime wallets accumulate forward of a main worth transfer, a sample related to “sensible cash” habits.

Historically, a vital decline in SER on the finish of 2024 preceded a main rally. This sample implies that Stellar’s prime 1% holders would possibly already be positioning for one more massive transfer.

4. XLM’s Price Structure Indicates a Potential Breakout

From a technical evaluation perspective, a number of analysts have seen that XLM’s worth construction resembles the bullish setup of 2017.

On the weekly chart, XLM has damaged out of a long-term descending wedge, a sample comparable to that of Q4 2017 – when a comparable breakout led to a robust rally.

“The 2017 and 2025 buildings on XLM’s weekly chart are strikingly comparable. Both present a breakout following a extended descending wedge formation. The 2017 breakout led to an aggressive rally. The 2025 setup seems to be forming on the identical technical basis,” an analyst said.

Zooming into latest months, XLM has additionally broken by means of a multi-month downtrend line. October’s volatility may very well be a retest earlier than a potential upward move begins.

While these 4 catalysts spotlight XLM’s inner strengths, exterior market pressures stay. The broader crypto market should face challenges from macroeconomic headwinds, together with recession concerns and financial coverage shifts in Europe and Japan. These components might complicate crypto worth actions within the coming months.

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