Can XRP Overcome Bearish October History With Key Catalysts Ahead?
September proved to be a risky month for XRP (XRP) and the broader crypto market. Still, the altcoin rose 3.66%, a notable reversal from August’s 8.15% decline.
As October begins, seasonality skews bearish. Over the previous 12 years, XRP has closed within the crimson throughout seven Octobers. Even so, a number of potential catalysts may problem that sample in 2025.
Seasonality vs Catalysts: XRP Sets up for a Pivotal October
According to knowledge from CryptoRank, XRP’s common October return stands at -4.58%, making it one of many weakest months for the altcoin apart from February and June.
This 12 months, the sample held in February, when XRP fell 29.3%. However, the coin defied seasonality in June, rising 2.95% and breaking a seven-year crimson streak.
With ‘Uptober’ approaching, analysts see an opportunity that XRP may as soon as once more buck the pattern and ship beneficial properties. Central to this potential shift are impending decisions by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on a number of spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) purposes.
The SEC is scheduled to rule on ETF filings from a number of asset managers between October 18 and 25. These embrace Grayscale, 21Shares, Bitwise, Canary Capital, WisdomTree, CoinShares, and Franklin Templeton.
These deadlines comply with a wave of applications, with many issuers vying for approval. If permitted, it may unlock vital institutional inflows, doubtlessly propelling XRP’s value increased. Furthermore, the current success of the REX-Osprey XRP ETF has fueled optimism for the potential of spot ETFs.
Beyond ETFs, developments within the XRP Ledger (XRPL) ecosystem are accelerating adoption. In late September, Securitize built-in with XRPL to boost utility and entry.
Furthermore, Ripple and Securitize launched a sensible contract that lets holders of BlackRock’s BUIDL and VanEck’s VBILL immediately swap their shares for Ripple USD (RLUSD) 24/7 on-chain—making a stablecoin off-ramp and deeper liquidity.
“Making RLUSD obtainable as an trade possibility for tokenized funds is a pure subsequent step as we proceed to bridge conventional finance and crypto. RLUSD is for institutional use, providing regulatory readability, stability, and actual utility. As adoption grows, partnerships with trusted platforms like Securitize are key to unlocking new liquidity and enterprise-grade use instances,” Ripple’s SVP of Stablecoins, Jack McDonald, noted.
In the decentralized finance (DeFi) house, Flare Network’s fXRP, a DeFi-compatible one-to-one illustration of the XRP, launched on the mainnet. Notably, its week-1 minting cap of 5 million FXRP was utterly utilized earlier than the timeline, a transparent sign of early demand and utility.
Similarly, Midas’ mXRP liquid staking token, issued on XRPL’s EVM sidechain through Axelar, amassed $26 million in whole worth locked (TVL) inside six days, highlighting untapped DeFi potential.
Thus, regardless of October’s traditionally weak XRP developments, 2025 brings credible upside catalysts: clustered SEC spot-ETF deadlines, rising XRPL adoption, and early DeFi traction.
If the SEC greenlights spot XRP ETFs, October may mark a pivotal transition from regulatory uncertainty to mainstream integration, doubtlessly reshaping XRP’s trajectory. However, draw back volatility may doubtless return if denials or delays arrive or macro tightens.
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