Canary Capital CEO Drops Shocking XRP ETF Prediction: Why It’s A Big Deal
In an interview revealed on October 4, Steven McClurg, co-founder and CIO of Canary Capital, sketched an aggressive outlook for a potential US spot XRP exchange-traded fund whereas mapping the broader contours of a crypto-ETF market he believes will consolidate round a small variety of large-cap property.
Spot XRP ETFs Will Shock Wall Street
Speaking with Paul Barron, McClurg reiterated after which upshifted a previous forecast on early demand for an XRP ETF, arguing that first-month inflows might attain an attention-grabbing $10 billion—double the “bearish” $5 billion determine he had beforehand floated.
“I could have modified my thoughts. I could have been a little bit bearish,” McClurg stated when requested whether or not $5 billion within the first month nonetheless felt reasonable. “I’m gonna maintain to that quantity as a result of… if it’s $10 billion, then I’m nonetheless proper.”
He added that day-one demand could possibly be unusually thick: “If it was a billion in sooner or later, I feel XRP does two or three billion day one.” For context, he recalled that the primary US bitcoin futures ETF launched with “over a billion {dollars} in inflows” on day one, inserting it among the many largest ETF debuts on document.
The Canary Capital government framed the approaching wave of crypto ETFs as broad however not limitless. While some commentators have speculated about dozens or perhaps a hundred listed merchandise throughout digital property, McClurg emphasised the constraints of “generic itemizing requirements” and real-world demand. “There’s solely about 14 to fifteen property which might be going to qualify underneath the generic itemizing requirements at present and I feel perhaps one other 5 to 10 after that,” he stated, drawing an analogy to the precious-metals advanced wherein solely a handful of commodities command sustainable ETF curiosity. “I don’t suppose that greater than, say, 25 are going to be related.”
McClurg expects asset focus to reflect what has emerged in spot bitcoin and ether ETFs. Asked whether or not baskets will win over single-asset funds, he answered that some large-caps will stand on their very own. “Things like most likely Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP and Solana will—every a type of will most likely have extra property than anybody basket. But after these 4 I feel baskets are the subsequent.” He additionally confirmed that Canary is growing an “American-made” crypto index theme—“you’ll have seen the submitting”—and, whereas declining to debate weights earlier than index publication, acknowledged that XRP could be included.
The dialog repeatedly returned to regulatory coordination and timing—particularly amid the federal authorities shutdown that started shortly earlier than the interview. McClurg stated the shutdown had already sidelined “non-essential” SEC workstreams, together with critiques of S-1 and S-3 registration statements. “I count on there to be a protracted delay,” he warned, pushing again on hypothesis that Solana ETFs might launch “subsequent week” whereas workers are furloughed. He nonetheless expects most pending crypto ETFs to clear this 12 months “so long as it’s not a really lengthy shutdown.”
Why XRP?
The XRP funding case, in McClurg’s telling, will hinge not simply on ETF rails however on underlying utility, particularly cross-border funds. “What I like about XRP is what they’re trying to construct… for monetary rails, together with cross-border funds,” he stated, recounting his personal path into blockchain by way of the remittances downside. He known as present remittance charges “ridiculously high,” including: “I’m for any expertise that eliminates lots of that… that’s type of a little bit of a secret weapon… for XRP compared to another ETF choices.”
Addressing governance headlines at Ripple, McClurg downplayed the market impact of David Schwartz’s move from CTO to XRPL-focused roles. “It actually doesn’t [change my view],” he stated. “He’s nonetheless concerned. He’s nonetheless on the board… I truly suppose this can be a optimistic,” permitting recent management to rotate in after a protracted, contentious interval for the corporate.
On macro and cycles, McClurg supplied a tempered framework. He expects the standard four-year crypto cycle to persist however change into “increasingly more muted” as market caps rise—“the regulation of huge numbers.” His year-end bitcoin goal stays $140,000 regardless of loftier calls elsewhere. “That sounds actually low,” he conceded, “however I simply don’t count on… it’s going to take much more work to maneuver that quantity up.”
He sees a believable extension of the rally into Q1–Q2 subsequent 12 months, conditioned by liquidity and charge coverage. A replacement of the Fed chair in May might immediate a rally in anticipation of deeper cuts, adopted by a sell-the-news response as soon as delivered. Meanwhile, he flagged weakening US shopper demand—restaurant, airline, and resort bookings among the many early alerts—as a rising headwind for danger property if it persists.
At press time, XRP traded at $2.97.