Capital.com’s Kyle Rodda Flags Bitcoin’s ‘Binary Risk’ as Trump’s Iran Deadline Looms
Capital.com Senior Financial Market Analyst Kyle Rodda warned that Bitcoin (BTC) faces “binary threat” as President Trump’s Tuesday 8 PM ET ultimatum to Iran forces merchants right into a pure escalation-or-relief situation.
BTC slipped under $69,000 on Tuesday after briefly topping $70,000 the day before today, as Iran rejected a 45-day ceasefire proposal and Trump declared the deadline “ultimate.”
Trump’s Fourth Deadline and the Crypto Response
Trump has demanded Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on every bridge and power plant in the country. This marks the fourth time the president has prolonged and reset his ultimatum since March 21.
A fifth delay stays potential if Trump sees a deal forming, although he mentioned Monday he was “extremely unlikely” to postpone once more.
Rodda informed BeInCrypto that markets are caught in a holding sample, ready for considered one of two outcomes.
“The strikes occur, issues escalate or they don’t, after which there’s one other huge reduction rally. Bitcoin stays range-bound, buying and selling between about $US60,000 and $US75,000,” mentioned Rodda.
He added {that a} main escalation would hit BTC by way of rising Treasury yields and a stronger US Dollar, each pushed by surging oil costs.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has consolidated round 100 and seems poised for a breakout, a sign that aligns with Rodda’s warning.
The DXY construction mirrors prior fractal patterns from 2014 and 2021 that preceded prolonged BTC drawdowns.
“DXY breaking in the direction of the upside will most likely take USDT dominance with it… which naturally would imply it’s best to see your subsequent transfer down in Bitcoin,” said analyst Kyle Doops.
However, Rodda additionally flagged resilience beneath the floor.
“It have to be remarked how resilient Bitcoin has been and there are tentative, although removed from confirmed, indicators that it’s bottoming out,” he mentioned.
A Bear Flag on the Clock
Technical construction provides one other layer of urgency. BTC has been consolidating inside a bear flag sample for roughly 60 days, matching the 54-day period of the earlier bear flag earlier than it broke down.
However, it’s value mentioning that declining quantity throughout the sample makes rallies laborious to belief.
Daily crypto change quantity has retraced to ranges final seen in the course of the FTX collapse, suggesting sentiment has cratered to historic lows.
In the identical manner, with oil as a number one sign, crude has tested resistance four times, and a breakout towards $128 per barrel would ripple throughout threat property, pressuring BTC additional.
Institutional Flows and Fading Volatility
Elsewhere, QCP Capital analysts noted that markets are more and more fading from Trump’s escalation pattern after 4 consecutive deadline extensions.
Crude oil has softened and fairness futures stay steady, suggesting diminished urgency round imminent strike threat.
Institutional demand has stayed constructive. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.32 billion in internet inflows in March, their first optimistic month since October 2025, snapping a four-month outflow streak.
MicroStrategy has additionally resumed BTC accumulation after a short pause.
In the choices market, implied volatility has drifted to its lowest level because the battle started on February 28. Skew is normalizing as properly, suggesting hedging demand has eased regardless of the geopolitical overhang.
Polymarket information shows merchants assign simply 3% likelihood to a ceasefire by April 7, rising to 30% by April 30.
Reports additionally recommend Trump might delay the deadline once more if a deal seems shut, including one other variable to an already binary setup.
Whether Tuesday brings strikes or yet one more extension, BTC’s response will take a look at whether or not the tentative bottoming indicators Rodda recognized can survive each a geopolitical flashpoint and a bear flag operating out of time.
The put up Capital.com’s Kyle Rodda Flags Bitcoin’s ‘Binary Risk’ as Trump’s Iran Deadline Looms appeared first on BeInCrypto.