Goverment Shutdown 2026 Odds Fall as Markets Split the October 1 Risk
Kalshi’s contract on a federal authorities shutdown on October 1, 2026 priced YES at 15-16 cents, an implied odds close to 10% and down sharply from 35% simply three weeks earlier. Polymarket’s parallel market, which resolves on a unique set off and a later cutoff, nonetheless confirmed 16.5 cents as of August 14, per Polymarket…
