US Elections

Key Takeaways ▸ Traders are closely positioning for 2028 regardless of unresolved 2026 midterms with $500M+ in notional quantity already in play. ▸ Early odds cluster round J.D. Vance and Gavin Newsom, however a crowded discipline alerts fluidity. ▸ GOP candidates prime the board, however party-level markets nonetheless lean Democratic (~60%). Traders are already throwing…

Key Takeaways ▸ Markets see an actual flip alternative in Ohio’s Senate election: Sherrod Brown vs. Jon Husted are pricing as a close to toss-up with Democrats barely favored (~58–59%). ▸ Kalshi flipped from a GOP edge (~76%) to a Democratic lean, signaling altering sentiment forward of November. ▸ Trading remains to be comparatively mild,…

Key Takeaways ▸ Markets see an actual flip alternative in Ohio’s Senate election: Sherrod Brown vs. Jon Husted are pricing as a close to toss-up with Democrats barely favored (~58–59%). ▸ Kalshi flipped from a GOP edge (~76%) to a Democratic lean, signaling altering sentiment forward of November. ▸ Trading remains to be comparatively mild,…

Key Takeaways ▸ Kalshi quantity alone jumped from $6.2M to $25M as merchants scramble to reprice the sector after Swalwell’s exit. ▸ Becerra is the brand new frontrunner, however removed from a lock, main at 41–43% after overtaking Steyer as frontrunner on Tuesday. ▸ Hilton is the race’s one consensus choose. Traders value him at…

Key Takeaways ▸ JD Vance is the clear front-runner (~35–39% throughout markets), reflecting conventional heir-apparent dynamics greater than a wide-open race. ▸ Donald Trump trades at low odds (~2–3%) however his shadow will proceed to form the board. ▸ Polymarket (~$600M) and Kalshi (~$33M) GOP markets are lively, although properly behind Democratic volumes (~$1B /…

Key Takeaways ▸ Traders are closely engaged in a race with no declared candidates and primaries nonetheless two years away. ▸ Newsom leads, however area remains to be large open with AOC, Ossoff, and Harris clustered behind and no clear consensus. ▸ Odds replicate momentum and media cycles. not fundamentals, establishing sharp swings forward. Prediction…