CertiK’s 2026 Report Shows Prediction Markets Entering Mainstream Amid Security Risks And Fragmented Global Regulation
CertiK, acknowledged as one of many largest suppliers of Web3 safety providers, launched its 2026 Skynet Prediction Markets Report, providing an in depth examination of the prediction‑markets sector after a 12 months marked by quick enlargement, elevated safety publicity, and shifting international regulatory circumstances.
The report notes that prediction markets moved into the mainstream in 2025, with annual buying and selling quantity rising fourfold and general exercise consolidating round a restricted group of main platforms.
Within CertiK’s Skynet Top Board analysis framework, Kalshi, Polymarket, and Opinion now characterize the vast majority of international quantity, every adopting distinct regulatory methods, technical designs, and architectural fashions.
Alongside this development, the sector skilled elevated dangers. In December 2025, a compromise of a 3rd‑occasion authentication supplier utilized by Polymarket demonstrated how hybrid Web2/Web3 techniques can introduce centralized vulnerabilities even when underlying good contracts stay safe.
CertiK explains that on‑chain platforms proceed to face ongoing threats, together with oracle manipulation, weaknesses in administrative key buildings, and entrance‑operating.
Market Distortions, Regulatory Divergence, And Growing Institutional Momentum In Prediction Markets
Research referenced within the report signifies that synthetic quantity reached ranges as high as 60% on sure platforms throughout peak incentive durations pushed by airdrops, creating distortions in liquidity indicators and buying and selling habits. Despite these distortions, chance outputs throughout main platforms typically remained reliable for forecasting actual‑world outcomes.
Following Kalshi’s profitable problem earlier than the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), prediction markets have gained recognition as authorized monetary merchandise on the federal degree within the United States.
At the identical time, a number of EU jurisdictions have prohibited Polymarket on the idea of unauthorized playing, and rising state‑degree restrictions throughout the US could contribute to a fragmented regulatory panorama.
Looking ahead, CertiK’s report positions prediction markets as creating infrastructure for pricing uncertainty throughout a variety of sectors. In 2026, the report anticipates that further jurisdictions will formally set up prediction‑market frameworks, that technical developments resembling enhanced privateness options will speed up, and that institutional participation will proceed to develop.
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