CLARITY Act Odds Just Crashed From 75% to 50% in One Week, Is the Crypto Bill Already Running Out of Time?

Prediction market odds on the CLARITY Act passing earlier than 2027 collapsed from almost 75% to 50% in a single week.

Traders are pricing in a compressed Senate calendar, unresolved yield-bearing stablecoin disputes, and the variety of banking lobby friction that has repeatedly stalled stablecoin regulation at the ground stage. The window for passage earlier than August now sits at 37%-and earlier than July, simply 14%.

Discover: The Best Crypto to Diversify Your Portfolio

What the Prediction Market Data Actually Shows for The CLARITY Act

The Kalshi and Polymarket indicators are telling completely different tales proper now, and the divergence issues. Kalshi’s pre-2027 contract cratered to 50%; Polymarket’s 2026 passage contract is presently buying and selling at 60%-up 16% over the prior month-suggesting retail prediction market contributors are structurally extra optimistic than the Kalshi positioning implies.

Galaxy Digital head of analysis Alex Thorn had already flagged this vary, placing 2026 passage odds at roughly 50-50 in April and citing 5 sequential procedural hurdles: Banking Committee markup, a 60-vote Senate ground win, reconciliation with a Senate Agriculture companion, reconciliation with a House model, and a presidential signature.

The committee markup cleared on May 14th – Senate Banking handed the CLARITY Act 15 to 9, however that clears just one of 5 gates.

TD Cowen’s Jaret Seiberg is significantly extra skeptical, telling shoppers he sees the invoice’s possibilities at one-in-three for this Congress.

His argument: any severe battle over yield-bearing stablecoins and financial institution versus non-bank issuer parity might push last passage into the subsequent administration completely. That hole between Seiberg’s 33% and Galaxy’s 70-75% conditional estimate is the place merchants are presently making an attempt to discover equilibrium.

Senate Gridlock and the Yield-Bearing Stablecoin Fault Line

The core legislative friction driving this repricing is the yield-bearing stablecoin dispute, and it’s not a peripheral problem.

The banking foyer is actively pushing for a blanket ban on stablecoin yield, framing it as a systemic threat to deposit-funded banking fashions.

JPMorgan Chase CFO Jeremy Barnum echoed that line publicly, emphasizing the dangers of permitting stablecoins like USDC to generate yield for holders.

This is the similar fault line that delayed the Senate Banking Committee markup by roughly 4 months, consideration was initially slated for January earlier than senators wanted extra runway to negotiate the yield provisions.

That delay is now being learn by merchants as a structural sign: if yield language might slip the timeline by 4 months at committee, it could possibly slip a ground vote previous the August recess completely.

Analysts monitoring the Senate ground calendar observe solely 9 to 10 usable weeks stay in 2026 as soon as August and pre-election breaks are excluded.

For crypto laws as technically contested as the CLARITY Act, that’s a particularly tight window – and it explains why the short-dated Kalshi contracts (earlier than July, earlier than August) have collapsed so sharply whilst the longer-dated 2026 Polymarket contract holds above 60%.

Senator Cynthia Lummis, the invoice’s sponsor, is pushing again on the pessimism. Her framing: “Wyoming didn’t look ahead to Washington to work out digital belongings.

We constructed the framework ourselves. I didn’t come to the U.S. Senate to sluggish that down, I got here right here to scale it-and that’s precisely what my invoice, the Clarity Act, does.” Polymarket odds ticked up following her remarks, which suggests her ground advocacy continues to be shifting retail contracts at the margin.

Discover: The Best Token Presales

The put up CLARITY Act Odds Just Crashed From 75% to 50% in One Week, Is the Crypto Bill Already Running Out of Time? appeared first on Cryptonews.