Closing November: Bitcoin’s Worst Month Since 2018 — Or Just A Long Exhale?
You know that feeling while you take a look at a chart and suppose, “So we simply did all that for nothing?” That’s just about what Bitcoin gave us into the shut of November. During November’s final week, worth stored knocking on the door of the low $90Ks, pretending it had the power to push — after which didn’t. We ended up sliding proper again towards $86K like the entire mid-month bounce was a half-hearted warm-up relatively than an precise try at a reversal.
And truthfully, zooming out, that tracks. November actually was a grinder. A almost 20% drawdown for Bitcoin, the worst November since 2018, and a common sense of “okay, perhaps we flew a bit too near the solar with these all-time highs.” Even the majors that often take turns main — ETH, SOL, the same old suspects — roughly adopted BTC’s temper decrease. That’s the psychological bit that makes late-year buying and selling difficult: as soon as sufficient of the market is underwater, folks cease shopping for dips and begin asking themselves whether or not they’re those offering liquidity to smarter sellers.
What really pushed all this? Well, choose your favorite macro plot twist. Rate-cut expectations have been mainly on a trampoline all month. Early November, everybody was flirting with a December reduce. Two weeks later, the likelihood cratered. Then abruptly it bounced once more. These aren’t “macro indicators,” they’re temper swings with charts connected. Bitcoin thrives on clear narratives; this was the other. And then Japan, of all locations, jumps in with rising JGB yields that threatened to unwind the yen carry commerce — a really unsexy phrase that however interprets immediately into danger belongings (like BTC) taking a slap.
Flows didn’t assist. Spot ETFs bled for weeks, which all the time feels worse than it really is as a result of folks now deal with ETF circulation tables like gospel. IBIT noticed big redemptions, and BlackRock needed to mainly say, “Calm down, that is regular.” And perhaps it’s. Because towards the very finish of the month, inflows lastly flickered again to life.
It matched the broader vibe on-chain: adverse funding, washed-out open curiosity, and general sentiment caught in “excessive worry.” These are the setups the place analytically-minded merchants begin whispering, “This might be the underside,” whereas emotionally-minded merchants suppose, “No, this should be the center of the drop.” Honestly, each camps might have a degree.
Meanwhile, the regulatory and structural stuff stored buzzing alongside within the background, nearly detached to cost. Texas actually purchased the dip via IBIT. Banks stored experimenting with stablecoins and tokenized funds.
re: Tether FUD
From newest attestation announcement (Q3 2025):
“Tether will proceed to keep up a multi-billion-dollar extra reserve buffer and an general proprietary Group fairness approaching $30 billion.”
Tether had (at finish of Q3 2025) ~7B in extra fairness (on prime of the…
— Paolo Ardoino
(@paoloardoino) November 30, 2025
Tether received a downgrade from S&P and responded with theatrical outrage, which, once more, is changing into a style of its personal. All these micro-events don’t transfer worth individually, however they create the air you breathe whereas buying and selling.
Across majors, the shut was extra “ugh, we have to cool off” than “oh God, the ground simply fell out.” ETH had this very ETH factor happening the place the basics (upgraded gasoline limits, Fusaka roadmap chatter) look nice on paper, whereas whales quietly sit on their fingers and refuse to chase the market increased.
Solana’s story was much more textbook: sturdy yr, an excessive amount of scorching cash, ETF flows abruptly reverse, treasury governance will get spicy, and increase — you get a drawdown with an identification disaster connected.
So the place does this go away Bitcoin heading into December? Well, the image is messier than the narratives make it. A lot of indicators scream, “We’re oversold, this ought to be a backside.” ETF flows aren’t bleeding anymore. And traditionally, when Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio is hugging zero, returns over the following a number of months skew strongly constructive.
But — and that is the annoying half all of us need to skip — macro can nonetheless smack us round. The BOJ might shock once more. US labour information might wobble. Another DAT or Strategy headline might spook liquidity. If we get yet one more flush into the low $80Ks, I received’t fake to be shocked. But I additionally received’t fake it’s an indication of the cycle’s demise.
If something, November felt just like the market collectively exhaling after months of sprinting. Now we’re coming into December with worth on this irritating however in the end wholesome vary — one thing like an $80K–$100K field — with leverage reset, sentiment thawing, and simply sufficient uncertainty to maintain everybody second-guessing themselves.
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