CME, Kalshi Deepen Sports Push With Super Bowl TD Props and Olympic Markets

CME Group and Kalshi have self-certified a recent batch of occasion contracts with the CFTC this week, increasing their sports activities and financial choices because the prediction market house continues its fast evolution. As CME Group is the market supplier for DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts, the brand new additions will seemingly be showing on each apps within the coming days.

CME’s additions concentrate on increasing fundamental sports activities choices, with landing props for the Super Bowl, tennis main winners (in time for Grand Slam occasions beginning in May), and school basketball over/underneath totals that are already accessible for buying and selling. Meanwhile, Kalshi is increasing in-game markets for tennis and additionally filed to supply Winter Olympic medal markets in time for the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics in February.

CME’s newest filings

CME filed three new product certifications on January 20 for binary occasion contract swaps:

• Pro Football Championship First Touchdown and Time-Interval Touchdown — CME licensed contracts for which participant will rating the primary landing of the Super Bowl, in addition to landing outcomes inside particular time intervals of the sport (so, markets like “anytime TD”).
• Pro Tennis Tournament Men’s & Women’s Singles Champion — Outright winner markets for the boys’s and ladies’s singles finals at main skilled tennis tournaments. The Australian Open is underway now, with the three different Grand Slam majors going down over the summer season, starting in May.
• College Basketball Game Total Points — Over/underneath model contracts on whole factors scored in school basketball video games. These have already been added to CBB markets on the apps.

The preliminary itemizing schedule on the submitting specified that each one three contracts could be listed “no before 1/22/26,” that means the tennis and Super Bowl TD prop markets may seem any day now.

DraftKings and FanDuel prediction apps nonetheless rolling out

These certifications comply with CME’s January 13 certifications for whole factors contracts masking professional soccer, professional basketball, professional hockey, and school soccer video games. All of CME’s sports activities occasion contracts are supplied to retail merchants via FanDuel Predicts and DraftKings Predictions, which launched in a restricted variety of preliminary states in December 2025.

FanDuel Predicts expanded from 5 states into all 50 states in mid-January, with sports activities contracts supplied solely in 18 states. DraftKings Predictions is available in 38 states and provides sports activities occasion contracts in 17 of these. In all their accessible states, the apps provide CME markets on the inventory markets, crypto, commodities and economics.

Next logical additions could be participant efficiency markets (AKA participant props) for the Super Bowl, and probably different Big Game-related markets outdoors of the sport itself, like who will win the coinflip, National Anthem size, halftime present props, what firms will air adverts in the course of the occasion, and extra. Such markets are already accessible on extra established prediction market exchanges, and a few of them are even supplied on FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbook merchandise in some states. Notably, FanDuel and DraftKings predictions merchandise don’t but provide point out markets, the place merchants on Kalshi and Polymarket can guess on whether or not announcers will say a specific phrase or phrase throughout broadcasts (or audio system in different publicly-aired occasions).

Other expectations for near-term additions embrace participant efficiency markets to be added to different professional sports activities (like NHL and NBA), in addition to level unfold markets for CBB, in all probability forward of March Madness. DraftKings Predictions additionally has a disclaimer proper now that “Live buying and selling shouldn’t be but accessible for all video games!” throughout the school basketball tab, so it appears they’re nonetheless constructing these markets out. MLB and Culture markets are additionally nonetheless notably lacking at this level, and will seemingly be added ultimately.

Kalshi expands in-game sports activities choices, plans Winter Olympics markets

Kalshi (KEX) filed 4 tennis-related contracts on January 16, increasing additional into micro-betting choices:

• Will participant win set in tennis match? — Contracts on particular person set outcomes.
• Will the quickest serve in tennis match be above/under/precisely/a minimum of/between depend velocity? — Serve velocity prop markets.
• Will tennis match be determined in above/under/precisely/between/a minimum of depend units? — Total units markets.
• Will participant win tennis match set rating? — Set rating final result contracts.

Until now, Kalshi has targeted sports activities market growth on broadening classes (quantity of sporting occasions and leagues you’ll be able to commerce on) and depth inside NFL markets, together with participant efficiency props and same-game parlays known as “combos.” The tennis markets had been licensed for Jan. 16, forward of the Australian Open finals this weekend. So far, Kalshi has tennis match winner, whole units (unfold), and actual match rating markets listed for tennis.

Kalshi additionally licensed a brand new FOMC-related contract on January 14: “Will <member> dissent on the <assembly> FOMC assembly?” — permitting merchants to guess on whether or not any Fed voting member will dissent from the speed resolution at upcoming Federal Reserve conferences. This contract is listed however there isn’t any buying and selling exercise but.

Kalshi additionally made changes to its Winter Olympics filings on January 13. The alternate withdrew three beforehand licensed contracts masking Olympic achievements, occasion occurrences, and efficiency metrics, then re-certified a revised model: “Will <participant> obtain <achievement> on the <12 months> Winter Olympics?” The reformulated contract seems to consolidate the sooner filings right into a cleaner construction forward of the Milano Cortina 2026 Winter Olympics in February.

Prediction market growth continues

The new certifications underscore the divergent methods of the varied exchanges and Kalshi’s headstart on the sports activities entrance. CME is constructing out its sports activities catalog methodically via its new partnerships with FanDuel and DraftKings, specializing in main leagues, championship occasions and sport totals that mirror conventional sportsbook choices. The alternate’s sports activities occasion contracts are solely accessible in states the place on-line sports activities betting shouldn’t be but authorized.

Kalshi, in the meantime, continues to broaden throughout a number of buying and selling classes whereas specializing in sports activities, which they nonetheless provide in all 50 states. The alternate already dominates the CFTC-regulated prediction market house, topping $2 billion in weekly trading volume throughout peak sports activities seasons, with roughly 90% of quantity presently coming from sports activities. Polymarket isn’t far behind, additionally approaching $2 billion weekly buying and selling quantity.

The new FOMC dissent contract provides to Kalshi’s standard suite of Fed-related merchandise, which have change into go-to devices for merchants hedging macroeconomic danger and different retail speculators. Top prediction market exchanges’ Fed meeting and inflation markets are seeing file exercise forward of the January 28 FOMC assembly, with the alternate pricing a 96-98% chance of the Fed holding charges regular.

The new tennis markets mark Kalshi’s additional growth into micro-betting or in-game markets outdoors of NFL, probably setting the stage for additional in-game markets on further group and particular person sports activities.

Prediction market exchanges proceed to face regulatory headwinds, notably over their providing of sports activities contracts allegedly in battle with current state sports activities betting rules. Over 30 states have filed amicus briefs supporting state authority over sports activities prediction markets, and Kalshi alone is engaged in additional than ten lawsuits with states.

Still, the regular cadence of latest product certifications indicators that each CME and Kalshi are betting the federal regulatory framework will maintain. And if not, they’ll have a deeper slate of markets to unfold when that point comes. In the meantime, demand for sports activities markets stays high throughout the U.S., and prediction markets are booming in progress as they assist fill the demand.

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