Countdown To ‘Bitcoin Bottom Day’: Why September 21 Could Change Everything

Bitcoin (BTC), the main cryptocurrency, has skilled a notable decline, erasing the beneficial properties it achieved following the latest resolution by the US Federal (*21*) (Fed) to chop rates of interest. 

After hovering to almost $118,000—simply 5% shy of its all-time high—the market has confronted renewed uncertainty. Despite this setback, consultants emphasize that the long-term outlook for Bitcoin stays optimistic, particularly as September 21 approaches, a date recognized as pivotal for Bitcoin’s worth trajectory.

Will September 21 Mark The Start Of A New Bull Run?

Market analyst Timothy Peterson highlights that traditionally, Bitcoin has completed the yr greater 70% of the time after September 21, with a median enhance exceeding 50%. He has dubbed this date “Bitcoin Bottom Day,” suggesting that the percentages of a worth enhance are considerably favorable. 

Peterson notes that two of the three downturns in Bitcoin’s historical past occurred throughout established bear markets in 2018 and 2022, circumstances that don’t replicate the present market scenario. This leads him to imagine that the probabilities of a worth rise are nearer to 90% this yr.

Furthermore, Bitcoin’s monitor report suggests it has a virtually good likelihood of holding its beneficial properties six months post-September 21. Peterson estimates there may be at the least a 70% chance that Bitcoin is not going to drop beneath the $100,000 mark once more.

Analysts Warn Of ‘Sell the News’ Bitcoin Phase 

Ryan Lee, chief analyst at cryptocurrency change Bitget, additionally factors to the latest 25-basis-point price lower by the Fed as an element that originally boosted Bitcoin’s worth, briefly pushing it above $117,000. This lower, the primary in 9 months, displays elevated liquidity available in the market. 

However, Lee cautions that the median projection of solely 50 foundation factors in complete cuts for the yr might mood among the optimism, introducing potential volatility as merchants alter their methods. 

Historically, Bitcoin has skilled a dip of 5% to eight% following price cuts earlier than resuming its upward development, suggesting a attainable “promote the information” section within the coming days.

Despite these fluctuations, Lee stays bullish in regards to the macroeconomic atmosphere, asserting that decrease yields on money-market funds (MMFs) are prone to direct capital towards different investments, equivalent to cryptocurrencies. 

He emphasizes Bitcoin’s position as a hedge on this risk-on local weather, particularly with roughly $7.2 trillion at present held in cash-like devices.

Looking forward, Lee predicts that the cryptocurrency could consolidate within the close to time period earlier than focusing on costs between $123,000 and $150,000, ought to extra price cuts materialize. 

Analysts at Bitfinex additionally share a optimistic outlook, projecting that with three anticipated price cuts by the tip of the yr and regular inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Bitcoin might attain between $125,000 and $135,000 by year-end. 

However, in addition they warning that if inflation or financial progress knowledge hinder the Fed’s means to proceed with additional cuts, Bitcoin may stabilize inside a variety of $110,000 to $115,000 as institutional participation and ETF belongings beneath administration present a stable ground.

Featured picture from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com