Crypto Fear Index Hits 10, Lowest Since July 2022 — What Happens Next?
Bitcoin plunged to $93,000 as we speak, matching excessive concern ranges unseen for the reason that depths of the 2022 bear market.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 10, its lowest studying since July 2022, whereas merchants erased $617.45 million in liquidations inside 24 hours as charge minimize expectations collapsed.
The sell-off accelerated through Asian trading hours after Wall Street’s Friday droop left main indices down over 1.6%.
Bitcoin accounted for $242.19 million in liquidations and Ethereum for $169.06 million, with the most important single wipeout reaching $30.60 million on a Hyperliquid BTC place.
Market pricing for a December Federal Reserve charge minimize plummeted to round 40% from greater than 60% the earlier week, pushing traders towards money and away from danger belongings.
Short-Term Holders Drive Capitulation
CryptoQuant analyst concluded that short-term holder capitulation dominated Bitcoin’s decline from the $126,000 peak, moderately than long-term holder distribution.
STH SOPR repeatedly fell under 1, confirming energetic loss-taking, whereas spent output age bands confirmed cash youthful than three months represented most quantity in the course of the dump.
Long-term holders elevated promoting since September, however the sample remained per regular mid-cycle profit-taking moderately than aggressive blow-off distribution seen at cycle tops.
Despite declining costs, Bitcoin’s Realized Cap elevated, indicating that recent capital continued to enter by means of new short-term holders.
These inflows proved inadequate to soak up capitulation from older STH cohorts mixed with ongoing LTH distribution.
The Bitcoin ETF Realized Price stood at $86,680, leaving BTC buying and selling roughly 9% above the typical value foundation of ETF patrons.
CryptoQuant analysts emphasised that marginal worth stress got here from STH deleveraging and compelled promoting throughout stress intervals.
“Even if LTHs offered extra in whole over months, markets react to marginal flows throughout stress,” the evaluation acknowledged.
“On dump days, leveraged STHs triggered speedy sell-offs and liquidations, creating the steepest downward momentum.”
Based on the on-chain construction, we’re seeing a bull market correction moderately than a cycle high reversal, regardless of the severity of current losses.
ETF Outflows Intensify As Institutional Demand Cools
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded weekly outflows of $1.11 billion from November 10 to 14, marking the third consecutive week of institutional retreat.
BlackRock’s IBIT bled $532.41 million, representing the most important web outflow, whereas Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust logged almost $290 million in weekly losses.
Total web asset worth of spot Bitcoin ETFs stood at $125.34 billion, representing 6.67% of Bitcoin’s market capitalization.
Simon Gerovich, CEO of Japanese Bitcoin treasury firm Metaplanet, argued that ETF outflows don’t undermine Bitcoin treasury corporations.
“A BTC ETF supplies fastened publicity to Bitcoin,” he wrote, including that ETF holdings gained’t improve with out fund inflows to assist them.
The crypto market capitalization fell to $3.31 trillion, down 0.9% from earlier ranges, erasing $1.1 trillion over 41 days.
Technical Retest Meets Historical Fear Parallels
Bitcoin examined its 2025 yearly opening round $94,000-$95,000 after closing the weekly candle above that stage, creating potential assist following a 27% correction from $128,000 peaks.
Trader Plan C noted Bitcoin remained inside a large consolidation vary from $75,000 to $126,000, with the underside of this vary marking the highest of the earlier vary.
Meanwhile, Max Crypto observed BTC posted its first weekly shut under the 50-EMA since Q3 2023, prompting some analysts to assign an 80% bear market chance if the sample endured by means of November 24.
The Fear Index studying of 10 matched sentiment extremes from July 2022, when Bitcoin traded between $19,000 and $20,000 in the course of the aftermath of the Terra/Luna collapse.
Current concern ranges occurring at $94,930, 4.7x increased than these 2022 lows, prompt sentiment had decoupled from worth, traditionally marking situations close to main bottoms.
However, historic precedent from July 2022 confirmed Bitcoin remained depressed for a number of months earlier than starting restoration.
Michael van de Poppe outlined conditional restoration potential, stating he wished to see Bitcoin maintain $94,000 and take a look at $100,000 throughout the week following the weekend low sweep.
“If that occurs, then there’s trillions and trillions of brief liquidity able to be taken out,” he mentioned.
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