Crypto Market Flips from ‘Greed’ to ‘Fear’ in 24 Hours – More Crash Coming?
The crypto Fear and Greed Index plunged from 64 (Greed) to 27 (Fear) inside 24 hours following President Donald Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, triggering what CoinGlass described as “the biggest liquidation occasion in crypto historical past.”
Over 1.66 million merchants had been liquidated with whole losses exceeding $19.33 billion, although precise figures could surpass $30 billion in accordance to some estimates, as Binance solely stories one liquidation order per second.
Tariff Shock Erases $1 Trillion in Three-Hour Cascade
Bitcoin crashed from above $122,000 to briefly under $102,000, wiping out all beneficial properties since August, whereas Ethereum tumbled from $4,783 to $3,400 earlier than recovering.
The international crypto market cap fell over 9% in 24 hours to $3.8 trillion, with roughly $1 trillion erased in simply three hours.
More than $7 billion in positions had been liquidated in lower than one hour of buying and selling on Friday alone.
Long positions absorbed the majority of injury, totaling $16.83 billion in losses in contrast to $2.49 billion from shorts.
Bitcoin led liquidations at $5.38 billion, adopted by Ethereum at $4.43 billion, Solana at $2.01 billion, and XRP at $708 million.
Hyperliquid noticed the biggest single liquidation, an ETH-USDT place price $203.36 million.
The alternate dealt with $10.3 billion or roughly 53% of all liquidations, adopted by Bybit with $4.65 billion, Binance at $2.39 billion, and OKX at $1.21 billion.
The collapse dwarfed earlier report occasions, together with the March 2020 COVID crash that noticed $1.2 billion in liquidations and the November 2022 FTX collapse with $1.6 billion.
Friday’s occasion was roughly 20 instances bigger than the COVID crash, with Brian Strugats of Multicoin Capital noting the main focus now turns to “counterparty publicity and whether or not this triggers broader market contagion.”
October’s Historical Strength Faces Unprecedented Test
Yesterday, Economist Timothy Peterson (*24*) that drops of greater than 5% in October are “exceedingly uncommon,” occurring solely 4 instances in the previous decade throughout October 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2021.
Following every earlier drop, Bitcoin rebounded by 16% in 2017, 4% in 2018, and 21% in 2019, with solely 2021 seeing an additional 3% decline.
October ranks as Bitcoin’s second-best performing month on common since 2013, delivering common returns of 20.10% and trailing solely November’s 46.02% common achieve in accordance to CoinGlass information.
If historical past repeats and Bitcoin mirrors its strongest October rebound of 21% from 2019, the same transfer from Friday’s $102,000 low would place the cryptocurrency round $124,000 inside every week.
However, Trump’s tariff announcement scheduled for November 1 in response to Beijing’s export restrictions on uncommon earth components creates ongoing coverage uncertainty.
The president later hinted he might reverse tariffs if China modifications course earlier than the deadline, doubtlessly triggering a short-term market restoration, although liquidation losses stay locked in.
According to Bloomberg, Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, recognized $100,000 as Bitcoin’s subsequent main assist degree, under which “would sign the top of previous three-year bull cycle.”
Bitcoin choices markets mirrored this view with the best variety of put strikes at $110,000 and the subsequent highest at $100,000, in accordance to Deribit information.
Analysts Split on Whether Liquidation Marks Bottom or More Pain Ahead
Jan3 founder Samson Mow maintained bullish sentiment, noting “there are nonetheless 21 days left in Uptober.”
MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe called the occasion “the underside of the present cycle,” evaluating it to the COVID-19 crash that marked the earlier cycle’s low.
The Bitcoin Libertarian took a longer-term view, suggesting that “in a couple of years, Bitcoin will crash from $1M to $0.8M in a couple of hours.”
David Jeong, CEO at Tread.fi described in the Bloomberg report that the market is experiencing a “black swan occasion,” noting that many establishments seemingly didn’t count on this volatility degree.
Similarly, Vincent Liu, chief funding officer at Kronos Research, stated the rout was “sparked by US-China tariff fears however fueled by institutional over-leverage,” including that crypto’s macro ties had been now clear.
The Fear and Greed Index studying of 27 compares to 64 yesterday, 71 final week, and 54 final month, marking one of many quickest sentiment reversals in crypto historical past, with Bitcoin additionally touching over a 6-month low inside hours.
Technical Analysis: Critical Support Tests for BTC and ETH
BTC presently trades round $111,522 after bouncing from the $102,000 low.
Immediate assist sits at $110,000 to $113,000, with the $113,500 degree recognized as important for triggering a aid rally.
Resistance zones above present costs stand at $117,933, $124,475, and the current high round $126,000.
The $20 billion liquidation cleared excessive leverage, doubtlessly eradicating promoting strain, although the sustainability of any bounce depends upon basic enhancements.
Volume traits don’t exhibit overwhelming conviction in both route.
ETH trades at $3,833 after testing $3,400, with instant resistance on the $4,000 psychological degree needed for upward momentum.
Support zones sit round $3,600 to $3,800, with failure to reclaim $4,000 seemingly triggering retests of those ranges.
Higher resistance stands at $4,080, $4,265, and $4,783. RSI indicators reached oversold ranges traditionally related to reversals, although these can stay depressed throughout real bear markets.
Both property face real uncertainty following the liquidation occasion.
Bitcoin should reclaim and maintain above $113,500 to validate restoration eventualities towards $117,000-$120,000, whereas failure would seemingly end result in retesting $102,000 or doubtlessly $95,000-$100,000.
Ethereum wants sustained buying and selling above $4,000 to set off momentum towards $4,200-$4,500, with a breakdown risking strikes towards $3,600-$3,800.
The clearing of leveraged positions removes instant promoting strain, although the unresolved tariff and potential for extra volatility recommend consolidation between present ranges and up to date lows stays essentially the most possible near-term final result earlier than directional readability emerges.
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