Crypto Underperforms Equities Market Despite Rate Cuts and QT End – Bull Run Over?
The crypto market continues to underperform equities since April, with main belongings exhibiting flat motion.
Bitcoin is down over 15% within the final 30 days regardless of current macro tailwinds from the Fed charge lower and the announcement to finish quantitative tightening (QT) by December.
The S&P 500 has maintained a 1.66% achieve within the final 30 days, extending year-to-date features to 16.76%.
This contrasts sharply with Bitcoin’s mere 4.2% YTD achieve, regardless of being the smaller asset with roughly $2.1 trillion in market cap in comparison with the S&P 500’s over $60 trillion valuation.
Liquidity Expanding, But Not Into Crypto
According to the November 2025 market report from crypto market-making fund Wintermute, liquidity is increasing globally, but capital isn’t reaching the crypto sector.
The Federal Reserve’s M2 Money Supply reveals liquidity trending upward since June 2023, with an addition of over $2 trillion, now standing at over $22 trillion as of September 2025.
Despite this enlargement, crypto ETF inflows have stalled, and digital asset treasury (DAT) actions on blue-chip crypto like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and BNB have dried up.
“Crypto market construction appears to be like wholesome with leverage flushed and positioning clear, however a pickup in ETF or DAT flows would be the key sign for renewed liquidity and a possible catch-up leg,” Wintermute said.
Fed’s Rate Cut Fails to Lift Crypto
Last week’s Fed rate cut, FOMC minutes, and U.S. tech earnings introduced inevitable volatility.
The selloff noticed over $19 billion in leverage worn out.
Some traders obtained caught leaning too bullish into the occasion because the 25bps was already priced in.
“Uptober” is trying extra like “Downtober.” Bitcoin is off 6% this month, and with macro headwinds constructing, analysts see a key take a look at forward. #BTC #Uptober #Cryptohttps://t.co/qBPY6NeJIQ
— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) October 24, 2025
The regarding half, nonetheless, is that equities stabilized shortly, however crypto didn’t bounce.
The crypto market since then has shed over $500 billion, with Bitcoin falling to round $104,000, Ethereum sliding to $3,500, and BNB and SOL down over 20% every.
Most altcoins obtained slaughtered, with outperformance pushed by short-term narratives.
The GMCI-30 dropped 12% final week. Losses have been widespread because the Gaming sector went down 21%, L2s down 19%, Memes down 18%, and Mid and Small Caps fell 15-16%.
Only AI (-3%) and DePIN (-4%) confirmed resilience, helped by power in names like TAO.
“Compared to different asset lessons, crypto is the worst performer,” Wintermute concluded.
Liquidity Restructuring Shows Crypto Bull Run Not Over
Global liquidity is clearly increasing, however Central banks are chopping charges into relative power, not weak point.
Liquidity STRESS is rising:
Banks are tapping the Fed’s repo facility on the highest degree since 2020.
That means they’re quick on money, and in a single day borrowing prices are rising quick.
Liquidity is tightening as QT drains reserves and Treasury invoice issuance absorbs money. pic.twitter.com/yd9XGDr1nk
— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) October 30, 2025
The downside is that incremental liquidity isn’t flowing into crypto prefer it used to.
Jasper De Maere, crypto strategist at Wintermute, famous that for that reason, “The idea of the four-year cycle is not related, whilst more and more loud voices on CT are beginning to ascribe damaging worth efficiency to it.”
The mechanics that after drove the crypto four-year cycle, together with miner provide and halving dynamics, not matter in a mature market.
What drives efficiency now could be liquidity.
U.S. Government Shutdown Compounds the Problem
On-chain data from CryptoQuant reveals the extended U.S. authorities shutdown has immediately affected liquidity circulation throughout Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
According to the Congressional Budget Office, the lapse in federal spending might erase $7–14 billion in financial output.
This means what’s presently unfolding is greater than fiscal uncertainty; it’s a liquidity freeze, and the crypto market is reflecting it.
While the CBO expects a brief rebound as soon as the shutdown ends, on-chain knowledge suggests confidence and capital will take longer to get well.
“For Bitcoin, this era will not be a easy dip to purchase—it’s a stress take a look at of conviction, liquidity, and persistence in a market formed by fiscal dysfunction,” concluded an analyst from XWIN Research Japan.
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