Crypto Winter Has Been Here Since January 2025, But Recovery May Be Closer Than You Think

Bitwise Asset Management’s Chief Investment Officer, Matt Hougan, has acknowledged that the cryptocurrency market has been in a full-blown “crypto winter” since January 2025.

The exec mentioned that indicators counsel the downturn could also be nearer to ending than starting.

Positive News Isn’t Driving Prices

In a latest submit titled “The Depths of Crypto Winter,” Hougan explained that, regardless of ongoing optimistic developments in adoption, regulation, and institutional involvement, the market is in a extreme bear market.

Hougan famous that Bitcoin has fallen virtually 39% from its October 2025 all-time high, whereas Ethereum is down 53%, and plenty of different digital property are performing even worse. He mentioned this shouldn’t be interpreted as a short-term correction or a minor dip, however somewhat as a deep, drawn-out bear market much like earlier crypto winters, together with these in 2018 and 2022. According to him, elements resembling extreme leverage and widespread profit-taking by long-term holders contributed to the present downturn.

Despite developments resembling a brand new Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh, who’s supportive of Bitcoin, rising institutional hiring in crypto, and rising adoption by conventional monetary corporations, investor sentiment stays deeply cautious. Hougan mentioned that “Good information doesn’t matter within the depths of winter,” and added that these extreme market circumstances sometimes finish not with enthusiasm however via exhaustion and sentiment normalization.

The Bitwise CIO additionally mentioned that institutional flows performed an important position in masking the true extent of the 2025 downturn. He cited information from the Bitwise 10 Large Cap Crypto Index, which confirmed that property like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP skilled smaller declines, between 10% and 20%, largely resulting from help from ETFs and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs).

Other property, together with Solana, Litecoin, and Chainlink, skilled typical bear-market declines of 37% to 46%, whereas Cardano, Avalanche, Sui, and Polkadot noticed losses starting from 62% to 75%. Hougan defined that institutional entry and funding via ETFs and DATs offered a buffer for some property, whereas retail-focused tokens bore the brunt of the market downturn.

For occasion, ETFs and DATs bought over 744,000 Bitcoin throughout the interval, representing roughly $75 billion in help. Without that institutional shopping for, he estimated Bitcoin might have fallen by round 60% since January 2025. As such, a number of elements might mark the top of the present crypto winter, in accordance with Hougan, who additionally mentioned,

“I feel we’re going to return roaring again sooner somewhat than later. Heck, it’s been winter since January 2025. Spring is definitely coming quickly.”

BTC’s Global Standing Weakens

The depth of the present downturn can be mirrored in Bitcoin’s standing amongst international property. As reported by CryptoPotato, Bitcoin has dropped out of the highest ten property by market capitalization and now ranks thirteenth globally, in accordance with CompaniesMarketCap information from February 2.

Its market cap has declined to roughly $1.56 trillion, down from about $2.35 trillion again in July 2025, when it ranked sixth after rallying previous $119,000.

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