Dalio: U.S. Nears Crisis Point as Bitcoin Trapped by American Selling Pressure
Ray Dalio warned the U.S. stands “on the brink” of transitioning from Stage 5 pre-breakdown to Stage 6 systemic collapse as Bitcoin is buying and selling defensively at $88,000, trapped in a 60-day vary by document institutional promoting stress from American counterparties.
The billionaire investor’s newest evaluation of the “Big Cycle” coincides with Bitcoin’s failure to reside as much as its “digital gold” narrative, whereas conventional protected havens surge to all-time highs.
Dalio’s framework identifies bankrupt authorities funds and wealth gaps as the “single most dependable main indicator of civil battle or revolution,” situations he argues now characterize American actuality.
Meanwhile, Wintermute’s desk experiences that Bitcoin stays caught between $85,000 and $94,000 as U.S. spot ETF products hemorrhage capital and the Coinbase premium trades at a persistent low cost, indicating that home establishments are driving bearish momentum.
Dalio’s Crisis Warning Meets Bitcoin’s Range-Bound Reality
Dalio’s long essay positions present American situations inside Stage 5 of his Big Cycle framework, the place “unhealthy monetary situations and intense battle” precede systemic breakdown.
“We are actually clearly on the point of crossing from Stage 5 (pre-breakdown) to Stage 6 (breakdown),” he wrote, pointing to unsustainable debt masses that power governments to both “print some huge cash, which depreciates its worth” or implement painful austerity.
The evaluation comes as Bitcoin trades range-bound for 60 consecutive days, an uncommon sample for an asset class usually marketed as safety in opposition to precisely the financial debasement Dalio describes.
Gold climbed above $5,066 per ounce on Tuesday whereas silver surged 6.4% to $110.60, each setting recent data as traders sought conventional inflation hedges.
Dalio warned that “later levels could contain capital controls, reserve freezes, and cross-border restrictions, turning funds into political instruments,” situations that usually favor “freely transferable property” and investments “prioritizing resistance to freezing and blockades.“
Bitcoin proponents have lengthy argued that crypto suits this profile, but the asset has failed to draw safe-haven flows amid elevated macro uncertainty.
U.S. Institutions Drive Selling as ETF Flows Turn Negative
Wintermute’s OTC desk recognized American promoting stress as the first power preserving Bitcoin suppressed inside its buying and selling vary.
“The Coinbase premium confirms it. US counterparties are internet sellers, extra so than Europe (marginal consumers) or Asia (impartial),” the agency’s market replace acknowledged, noting that “ETFs drive momentum on this market; when that bid disappears, you get uneven, directionless value motion.“
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF products recorded their largest weekly outflow since February 2025 final week, reversing the sturdy inflows that accompanied January’s transient breakout try towards $97,000.
The failure of that rally left Bitcoin again in the midst of its established vary, with $85,000 serving as examined help.
CryptoQuant’s on-chain evaluation suggests the promoting stress additionally comes from opportunistic profit-taking somewhat than compelled capitulation.
The Miners’ Position Index printed close to -1.5, indicating miners “are actually promoting lower than their 1-year common” after aggressive stock monetization at $110,000-$120,000 ranges.
Similarly, alternate whale ratios stay elevated, however deposits fall “properly under prior spike highs, implying tactical, price-sensitive distribution somewhat than all-in capitulation.“
Catalyst-Rich Week Could Break Two-Month Deadlock
Speaking with Cryptonews, Arthur Azizov, Founder at B2 Ventures, framed Bitcoin’s weak point throughout the context of competing safe-haven narratives.
“When uncertainty rises, capital first strikes into traditional defensive property. We see this now from gold breaking above $5,000,” Azizov mentioned, including that “Bitcoin is commonly known as ‘digital gold,’ however in actuality, it’s nonetheless, at the beginning, a danger asset.“
Multiple macro catalysts converge this week that would lastly break Bitcoin from its compressed vary.
The Federal Reserve broadcasts its coverage resolution on Wednesday alongside key earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and Apple, whereas Trump’s fresh 25% tariff threat against South Korea provides geopolitical uncertainty.
Wintermute analysts count on continued consolidation absent a transparent directional catalyst.
“Sixty days of compression assembly this a lot occasion danger, one thing provides,” the agency concluded, figuring out $85,000 as the important help stage with ETF stream reversal required earlier than Bitcoin can “break convincingly above mid-$90K ranges.“
Market Performance Indicates Cautious Recovery
Bitcoin traded at $88,553 earlier today and rose 1.4% as Asian markets opened with tentative optimism regardless of recent tariff threats.
However, on the time of writing, Bitcoin is again under the $88K help stage, pushing the full crypto market cap to $3.06 trillion, down 0.18% on the day.
The unsure trajectory got here as broader danger property discovered footing forward of the Fed resolution, although Azizov’s “base case is consolidation,” with expectations that Bitcoin will “maintain the $85k–$88k zone,” which beforehand served as sturdy help via late 2025.
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