Data Suggest Bitcoin May Be Entering A New Bear Phase, Warns CryptoQuant
As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to commerce under the pivotal $90,000 mark with no indicators of restoration, the prospect of a bear market is changing into more and more related. Analyst Woominkyu from CryptoQuant has shared insights suggesting that the present market dynamics point out a transition moderately than only a short-term pullback.
Could Bitcoin Be Shifting Into A Bear Phase?
In a report launched lately, Woominkyu examined the Bitcoin Cycle Momentum Indicator (BCMI), noting that its return to the 0.5 zone on October 21 was interpreted as a cooling section, moderately than indicative of a market peak.
In the weeks following this remark, Bitcoin’s worth has seen a noticeable decline alongside an analogous drop in BCMI, suggesting that the market shouldn’t be solely experiencing a cooling interval however has additionally reset by way of worth and on-chain momentum.
Historically, vital cycle bottoms for Bitcoin in 2019 and 2023 occurred when BCMI ranges fell between the 0.25 and 0.35 vary. These ranges are sometimes related to full sentiment compression and a structural reset inside the market.
Currently, whereas BCMI stays under equilibrium as seen within the chart above, and it’s nonetheless above the historic backside zones. This information means that Bitcoin could also be shifting right into a bear section moderately than recovering from a easy pullback.
According to Woominkyu, a extra secure backside might solely materialize if BCMI revisits ranges seen throughout the earlier cycles from 2019 to 2023.
Bear Market Conditions
In a separate analysis, CryptoQuant indicated that demand for Bitcoin has sharply declined, reinforcing the thought of a bear market. The report pointed to the numerous drop in Bitcoin demand development that has occurred since early October 2025.
Moreover, the report highlights that institutional and large-holder demand is contracting as an alternative of increasing. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have transformed into internet sellers throughout the fourth quarter of 2025, offloading roughly 24,000 BTC.
Additionally, the variety of addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, which usually symbolize ETFs and treasury firms, can also be rising at a price under the pattern, reflecting the demand deterioration that preceded the bear market of 2022.
The situation of the derivatives markets additional corroborates the weakening urge for food for threat. Funding charges in perpetual futures have dropped to their lowest ranges since December 2023.
Historically, such declines in funding charges point out a lowered willingness to keep up lengthy positions, a phenomenon generally related to bear market conditions moderately than bullish traits.
Technical evaluation additionally reveals the deterioration of Bitcoin’s worth construction, with the cryptocurrency falling under its 365-day transferring common—a vital long-term help degree that has traditionally delineated bull and bear markets.
Looking forward, historic information means that Bitcoin’s bear market bottoms usually align with its realized worth, at the moment estimated round $56,000. This implies a possible drawdown of roughly 55% from the current all-time high.
Intermediate help is anticipated across the $70,000 degree, suggesting a comparatively shallow bear market in comparison with earlier cycles.
At the time of writing, BTC was buying and selling at $87,635. This represents year-to-date losses of 10%, in addition to a 30.5% hole in comparison with all-time highs of simply above $126,000.
Featured picture from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
